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The Dance-Card Model Picked 35 Of 36 At-Large Bids This Year

The bracket-predicting model developed by Jay Coleman, Mike DuMond, and Allen Lynch had another strong performance in 2014, and has now predicted 108 of 110 at-larges over the last three seasons. The only miss was N.C. State, which the model put outside of the bubble, in favor of California.

This is a somewhat notable miss. Based on data from recent bracket selections, the committee has shown a small bias in favor of borderline squads in the Pac-12 , which the Dance-Card has attempted to account for. According to Professor Coleman, if this model adjustment were removed for this year, California would have fallen just barely below the bubble line, although Southern Miss, not N.C. State, would have moved up.


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