Three College Football Underdogs to Watch: Week 4 CFB Betting Picks

To open the college football season, we’ve seen a lot of upsets, but we haven’t seen anything that will go down in college football history. I think there are three teams this week that have a chance to pull off a major upset, or at the very least cover a spread that’s way too large.

Bowling Green vs Louisville -25.5

In Eddie George’s first season as head coach of Bowling Green, he has completely rejuvenated the program. The Falcons have already pulled off a big win against Liberty and played a close game with Cincinnati as well.

Louisville is looking to play spoiler in the ACC this year, and coming off a bye, this is a complete look-ahead game for the Cardinals. Led by Drew Pyne, who’s played power conference football for half the country, he’s playing some of his best football in his career at Bowling Green, and I think he can outduel Louisville’s Miller Moss.

Unfortunately, the Cardinals’ defense is quite legitimate, so that could be a significant issue in this one. However, if Bowling Green finds a way to get the offense moving with some consistency, the pressure will be on Louisville, and they may be on upset alert.

Northern Illinois vs Mississippi State -23.5

After a massive upset win over Arizona State, things are trending in the right direction for the Bulldogs. I just don’t believe that upset was very impressive. Arizona State’s record last season was a little fluky, and Cam Skattebo isn’t there to will them to improbable victories.

Northern Illinois is coming to town, and their offense stinks, but they have a top-two defense in the MAC. They have the defense to slow down a solid Bulldog passing attack, so if they can generate any offense, they will cause trouble in Starkville. Josh Holst is one of the more underwhelming QBs in a fun MAC conference, but I’m simply betting on their defense to muck this game up. I think this at least stays within the number.

BYU -6.5 vs ECU

The spread in this game makes it feel like it would be less of an upset than it actually is, but East Carolina pulling off this win would be massive. ECU already took NC State the distance to open the year, and now getting the chance at home to take down a Big 12 program at night, I love the spot for them.

This game comes down to one main thing for me. Bear Bachmeier is a worse QB than his brother Hank Bachmeier, who was an instant fade for years in college football. I give out picks based on matchups or some sort of stat, but this is simply a pick for the ball knowers out there.

Fade a Bachmeier in a big game, plain and simple.