Twins vs. Guardians Prediction: Best Bets for Tuesday's AL Central Showdown

The Minnesota Twins (49-52) and Cleveland Guardians (53-48) meet for the second installment in a four-game series at Progressive Field on Tuesday, and first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET.

The Twins are looking to bounce back after the Guardians routed them 13-4 despite the presence of All-Star RHP Joe Ryan on the bump. Cleveland knocked him around for eight runs and 10 hits in just four innings, and he was out there serving up batting practice. Ryan tied a major league record, while setting a Twins franchise record, by serving up six home runs.

The Guardians swatted seven homers on Monday night, and it was the sixth time in Indians/Guardians history that the team has belted at least seven home runs in a single game. Rhys Hoskins swatted a pair of solo home runs, while Petey Halpin also had two homers and three RBI out of the ninth spot. All-Star Travis Bazzana, Patrick Bailey and Brayan Rocchio also left the yard. Chase DeLauter had two singles and two doubles in five at-bats, while driving in three runs.

Tuesday Twins vs. Guardians best bet

Now, the Guardians turn to their All-Star, LHP Parker Messick (8-5, 2.73 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) for Tuesday’s game. He is 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 58 ⅓ IP in 10 home starts, and he has allowed just two homers in those outings. In other words, Ryan has allowed three times as many home runs at Progressive Field in four innings than Messick has allowed in 10 outings.

The rookie LHP Kendry Rojas (1-1, 2.79 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) makes his third start and ninth career appearance. It’s his first start since serving as the opener for two innings in a 12-3 loss against the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 23. He twirled four scoreless innings in his only other start against the Houston Astros on May 18. This will be his first-career road start.

Minnesota is skidding hard, losing three in a row, while getting outscored 29-7 in the nosedive. The Over has cashed in the past two games, allowing 11.5 runs per game (RPG).

Cleveland is 2-2 in four games out of the All-Star break, while the Over has cashed in each of its past two games, too. The Guardians are 6-2 in the past eight games, while the Under is still 6-2 in the eight-game span since July 9.

The Twins are 23-27 on the road this season, while going 14-14 inside the AL Central Division. Against left-handed starting pitchers, Minnesota is just 13-18 this season.

The Guardians have a 26-24 mark at home, while going 16-11 inside the division, although they’re just 2-4 in the past six games against the AL Central. Cleveland is 21-12 vs. LHP in 33 encounters this season, too.

There is a 50 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms around first pitch, with the weather expected to mostly clear out by 9:00 p.m. ET, so there could be a potential delay. The good news is that the rains should keep the smoke and haze from the Canadian wildfires to a minimum. If it was dry, the air quality might be an issue, with the winds blowing out of the west-northwest from 10-15 mph. That means winds will be blowing from left field to right field, which could aid right-handed hitters against left-handed starters. As such, our top play in this game is the OVER 8 (-115). In addition, with Messick against an opener, it’s surprising the GUARDIANS (-150) aren’t favored by quite a bit more.