UFC 330 Picks: Top Plus-Money Underdog Prediction

Many feel the way that you have to bet on UFC is parlaying heavy favorites together, but underdogs win approximately 35% of the time in the world’s largest MMA promotion. Don’t be afraid to hunt for plus money.

Years ago, I developed a predictive model that uses in-fight stats and fighter attributes to simulate the outcome of UFC fights — so long as the combatants had at least 30 completed octagon minutes or five total fights. I found that, in the UFC, moneyline favorites are usually overvalued.

How is that possible? Well, in a fight environment with as many variables per second as MMA, it’s hard to see the difference between -150 and -350 in real time. Great bets can lose. Terrible bets can win by lucky measures.

Every week, I’m going to give you my favorite underdog bet of the week. They’ll usually be showing value in my model, and I’ll explain their path to victory.

Here’s my favorite bit of plus money available for UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry. Note: All fight odds come via Polymarket, the official prediction market of UFC.

Swaim’s Underdog of the Week: Kaue Fernandes (+138)

Model Odds: -152

Model’s Favorite Exact Outcome and Implied Odds: Knockout (+195)

For the most part, my model stays siloed. Underdogs stay underdogs. Favorites stay favorites. I am rarely this split from implied odds, but I think it has to do with name value.

Physically, Jalin Turner is a monster. The 6’3” behemoth somehow makes 155 pounds, and he’s got a massive 77” reach. I’ve bet the guy in 11 straight fights heading into this weekend because of a combination of his knockout power (1.74% knockdown rate) and submission attempts (1.1 per 15 minutes).

So, why is this week different? As is the case in MMA, styles always make fights, and this open-stance matchup is a picture-perfect one for Kaue Fernandes.

Fernandes’ niche at lightweight is as a leg-kick specialist. He’s scored two first-round knockouts by battering opponents’ legs, landing at least 10 in three straight fights.The result is a 2.45% knockdown rate in UFC from a variety of attacks.

The benefit of Turner’s length actually works against him when defending calf kicks. Dan Hooker landed 23 against him, and Brok Weaver (25), Mateusz Gamrot (9), King Green (7), and Jamie Mullarkay all got in on the fun. None of them lands with any impact close to what Fernandes has shown, though.

“Well, Turner knows it’s coming.” And?

You can’t exactly change a bladed stance that’s heavy on a slender front leg in one camp. Turner lands just 0.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and isn’t really built to wrestle. It’s sort of an unavoidable bridge he’ll have to cross by simply wiping Fernandes out down the pipe before his leg is too damaged.

My model doesn’t buy it. This result reminds me of its affinity for Chris Gutierrez, another accurate, predictable leg kick specialist at bantamweight. “El Guapo” didn’t have takedown D (76%) as good as Fernandes’ though.

Training with the famed duo of Jose Aldo and Andre Pederneiras at Nova Uniao in Brazil, there are more wrinkles to Fernandes’ game than just leg kicks, but it’s a phenomenal start — and one I don’t think “The Tarantula” can avoid.