UFC Fight Night Underdog Pick: Davey Grant Offers Value at +270

Many feel the way that you have to bet on UFC is parlaying heavy favorites together, but underdogs win approximately 35% of the time in the world’s largest MMA promotion. Don’t be afraid to hunt for them.

Years ago, I developed a predictive model that uses in-fight stats and fighter attributes to simulate UFC fight outcomes — so long as the combatants had at least 30 completed octagon minutes or 5 total fights. I found that, in the UFC, moneyline favorites are usually overvalued.

How is that possible? Well, in a fight environment with as many variables per second as MMA, it’s hard to see the difference between -150 and -350 in real time. Great bets can lose. Terrible bets can win by lucky measures.

Every week, I’m going to give you my favorite underdog bet of the week. They’ll usually be showing value in my model, and I’ll explain their path to victory.

Here’s my favorite bit of plus money available for UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Note: All fight odds come via Polymarket, the official prediction market of UFC.

Swaim’s Underdog of the Week: Davey Grant (+270)

Model Odds: +149

Model’s Favorite Exact Outcome and Implied Odds: Decision (+263)

Like all of us, Davey Grant will wake up older than he’s ever been on Saturday ahead of his fight at the Meta Apex. He’s perhaps one of UFC’s clearest examples that age can be just a number, though.

At 40 years old, Grant has won five of his last seven fights dating back to the start of 2022. Because of his age in this window, he’s been the underdog at open in five of these. This spot, as a ‘dog to the next great up-and-comer less than 24 months removed from the Contender Series, is one he’s been extremely successful navigating.

The Englishman’s torrid pace, attempting 12.54 significant strikes per minute, broke down Ramon Tavares and Adrian Luna Martinetti. His takedown defense (65%) has come a long way since his early UFC tenure, and he hasn’t been submitted since July 2018.

That even includes 15 minutes with Da’Mon Blackshear, one of the division’s best grapplers with a 61.1% rate of submissions in wins as a professional.

Elijah Smith’s archetype is pretty common in many divisions. The uber-athletic bantamweight is a highlight machine that has suspect moments because he’s raw and developing, but he can just usually power out of them. Smith’s striking defense is 8 percentage points worse than Grant’s, and his takedown defense is 12 percentage points worse.

Smith has faced two Road to UFC graduates since a razor-thin decision against Vince Morales where he was in trouble with a third-round attempt at a d’arce choke. They finish tied in significant strikes (40).

Obviously, Smith’s knockout power and wrestling are a real threat early. The second-generation fighter, and son of Gilbert “Midnight Magic” Smith, has finished his last two opponents, and Grant is at an age that defies trends for bantamweight. But, he defied it again just over six months ago, and this is yet another spot where no one believes.

My model does. I have Grant 60.5% likely to win the distance striking differential, and Smith’s median takedowns (2.09) aren’t extremely high. Grant hasn’t surrendered multiple takedowns since March 2023.

As expected, Grant’s decision outcome (27.5% likely) is easily its favorite way to back him.

“Dangerous” hasn’t quite lived up to his nickname as an elder statesman with no knockdowns in his last five bouts. Smith has also never been finished as a pro.