UFC Vegas 122 Betting Splits: Where the Sharp Money Is Landing This Weekend

Ernesta Kareckaite, Leon Shahbazyan and Christian Leroy Duncan headline the potential sharp money angles for this weekend’s UFC Vegas 122, based on the supplied moneyline splits.

Unlike recent cards dominated by long-shot underdogs attracting oversized wagers, this board’s strongest discrepancies center on competitively priced fighters.

Kareckaite Has the Strongest Big-Money Signal

Ernesta Kareckaite presents the largest handle-versus-ticket discrepancy on the card against Melissa Gatto. At -105, Kareckaite accounts for 88% of the money despite receiving just 51% of the bets, creating a 37-percentage-point gap.

Gatto, the slightly pricier -115 side, attracts 49% of tickets but only 12% of the handle. The number of wagers is almost evenly divided, yet the dollars overwhelmingly favor Kareckaite.

That makes this matchup particularly interesting: the signal is not simply an overwhelming ticket majority also generating an overwhelming money majority.

Based on these percentages, Kareckaite’s average wager is roughly seven times the size of Gatto’s. That does not establish who placed those wagers, but it illustrates how differently the two sides are being backed.

Leon Shahbazyan offers the next-largest discrepancy against Niko Price. Shahbazyan is listed at -142 with 88% of the handle and 63% of the tickets, a 25-point gap. Price receives 37% of bets at +120 but only 12% of the money.

Here, larger wagers reinforce the ticket majority rather than oppose it. Shahbazyan therefore belongs near the top of the potential sharp-money watchlist, although his split represents agreement between ticket volume and dollar volume, not a contrarian position.

Duncan and Bonfim Attract Money Against the Ticket Majority

Christian Leroy Duncan stands out as the strongest underdog discrepancy against Brendan Allen. Duncan’s +105 price attracts 60% of the handle on 40% of the bets, producing a 20-point gap.

Allen, meanwhile, receives 60% of tickets at -125 but just 40% of the money. This is a clear disagreement between the two measures: more wagers favor Allen, while more dollars favor Duncan. Among the supplied underdog prices, Duncan has the strongest combination of a positive handle gap and an outright majority of money.

Ismael Bonfim shows a smaller version of that pattern against Francisco Prado. Bonfim, available at +100, draws 51% of the handle despite receiving only 39% of tickets. Prado’s -120 moneyline attracts 61% of bets but 49% of dollars.

Bonfim’s 12-point discrepancy is less dramatic than Duncan’s, but it still earns attention. VSiN’s betting-splits guidance commonly uses a handle advantage of at least 10 percentage points as a screening threshold for potential sharp interest.

Camilo and Fili Lead the Secondary Angles

Matheus Camilo and Andre Fili round out the most notable favorite-side discrepancies:

Matheus Camilo (-185) against Jai Herbert: 96% of handle versus 79% of bets, a 17-point gap.

Andre Fili (-142) against Kai Kamaka III: 86% of handle versus 72% of bets, a 14-point gap.

Malcolm Wellmaker (-225) against Otari Tanzilovi: 96% of handle versus 87% of bets, a smaller nine-point gap.

Camilo and Fili attract both ticket majorities and disproportionately strong dollar support. They rank behind Kareckaite and Shahbazyan by discrepancy, but ahead of favorites whose handle and ticket percentages closely match.

Felipe Franco, for example, receives 93% of both measures against Brendson Ribeiro. Julius Walker has 96% of the handle and 93% of bets against Gerald Meerschaert. Those are heavily backed favorites, but the supplied numbers provide little separation between their ticket support and money support.

The strongest watchlist is Kareckaite, Shahbazyan, Duncan, Camilo, Fili and Bonfim. Still, this snapshot contains no opening prices, timestamps for previous observations or total wager counts. It cannot establish reverse line movement or confirm sustained professional buying.

Splits can change substantially as additional wagers arrive, so the useful next check is whether these discrepancies persist alongside actual price movement, not whether a large handle percentage alone makes a fighter an automatic bet.