What Prediction Markets Are Telling Us About NBA Playoffs in the East

Unlike the Western Conference that seemingly runs through Oklahoma City, the East is turning into a bit of a mess after some earlier-than-expected upsets. According to Kalshi, Boston’s probability of winning the East only fell from 45% to 42%, but I’m more interested in the markets of the other teams dancing in the East.

Cleveland has been the biggest riser in recent days, moving from a perceived 20% chance to win the East up to a 26% after a 2-0 start. If you’ve watched the Cavs at all, they’ve really answered any concerns you may have for them. Throughout most of the regular season, this team’s been battered with a litany of injuries, but entered the playoffs at full health, and they’ve looked great.

They’re probably my favorite team out of the East, but I still have a massive concern. James Harden has looked tremendous paired with Donovan Mitchell against a slower Raptors squad, but am I falling for the same trap that Harden has laid many other times in his career? Maybe with a more limited role, he will be able to reach the finals once again, something he hasn’t done since 2012.

Detroit’s Eastern Conference title probability saw some recovery after a tough game one loss to Orlando. They were only given a 12% chance to win East, but after looking much better in the second half of game two, those percentages have bumped back up to 17%.

Still, I don’t have much confidence in this Pistons offense. Cade Cunningham can only do so much to carry an offense that, despite winning, only scored 98 points, hit six threes, and was only 23% from beyond the arc. Only four players connected from beyond the arc, and Tobias Harris is still struggling to provide consistent production on offense.

If I were to pick any team outside of Boston or Cleveland, it would only be the Knicks. New York can absolutely hang with Cleveland and Boston, but they’re currently dealing with the toughest draw for a first-round matchup in the East.

The Knicks only have a 13% chance to win the East, but I think you’re getting some great value if you take them. Jalen Brunson has been the Knicks' leading scorer in the first two games of this series, but has been a bit inefficient when he’s not taking threes, shooting just 34% from two-point range thus far.

I expect him to be more efficient on his drives, and the rest of the starting lineup has been quite consistent, so there’s some serious value in New York.

Overall, Cleveland has my favorite chances for an even contract in the Eastern Conference playoffs. I’m willing to get fooled by James Harden one last time, because things seemingly are looking much different this year.