Which NBA Playoffs Game 1 Loser Is Most Likely To Win Their Series?

On Saturday, we watched all the higher seeds take care of business and start their series up 1-0. It’s way too early to overreact to these games, but I think a lot of these winners will end up moving on to the second round. Here are the teams I think have the best chance of coming back from their slow starts.

Houston Rockets
Before the series, I picked the Lakers to pull off the big upset over Houston, and I still believe that’s the case; however, they’re the team I think has the best chance of turning their luck around.

If the Rockets are without Kevin Durant, I have no idea where they’re generating any offense. Houston shot 38% from the field, and Reed Sheppard and Alperen Sengun struggled to generate any offense as primary ball handlers. On the other end, LeBron James and company did a great job of slowing the game down by running a consistently efficient offense. If Houston can get more stops and generate offense in the fastbreak, they could easily swing this series around.

Atlanta Hawks

For most of 2026, the Hawks have looked like one of the best teams in the NBA. Offensively, they had a solid outing in game one against the Knicks, but New York had one of their better shooting performances, knocking down 48% of their triples.

Atlanta will need to turn New York over more, but that’s something the Knicks have done a good job of preventing all season long. If Atlanta can find a way to steal game two on the road, I think they’ll be in a great spot to steal this series. I would still take the Knicks in this series, but the Hawks didn’t seem rattled on offense, and that’s an important factor in pulling off the upset.

Minnesota Timberwolves
I am fully out on this iteration of the Timberwolves. 

It might be dumb to fade the team that’s been to two straight Western Conference Finals, especially one with Anthony Edwards, but I hate the construction of Minnesota in 2026.

The Nuggets are going to get out and run all day on Minnesota, and have more shooting than they have in most years during the Nikola Jokic era. Denver shot poorly in game one and still won by double digits. Donte DiVincenzo is the only player outside of Edwards who can provide any gravity on offense for the T-Wolves, and I don’t think that’s enough to stop the Nuggets. If Jamal Murray starts hitting jumpers, this series could be ugly.

Toronto Raptors

All season long, we wondered when the Cavs would turn it on, and I think we watched them take it to another level in game one. The Cavs are finally all healthy, and we got to see a 10-deep roster that looked very comfortable playing together.

RJ Barrett, Jamal Shead, and Scottie Barnes combined for 11/16 from three, and they still weren’t in this game for most of the second half. Cleveland’s rotations were at their best in this one as well, with one of Donovan Mitchell or James Harden, and Evan Mobley or Jarrett Allen on the floor at all times, and they provide way too much firepower for Toronto to handle. The Raptors might steal one game in Toronto, but I’d bet on this one being a sweep.