Which NFL Team Will Land the No. 1 Pick in the 2027 NFL Draft?

The preseason is underway, but that isn’t stopping draft nerds from looking ahead to April’s 2027 NFL Draft.

Even if you aren’t a draft nerd who will be glued to your television during the NFL Combine this spring, there’s naturally some intrigue surrounding which team will be the worst in the league this season and earn themselves the No. 1 overall selection.

Usual suspects including the New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns are expected to be bad in what is expected to be a stellar draft class for quarterbacks. Rebuilding teams like the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans also contend to secure the top draft selection, even though those organizations are entering the season with a better solution at quarterback.

There’s plenty of debate about which college football star will emerge as the No. 1 overall selection in the draft. But let’s take a look at which team will be drafting first in April.

Arizona Cardinals

On Kalshi, a popular prediction market that allows users to trade contracts of real-world events like the NFL season, the Cardinals currently have a 33% chance of landing the No. 1 overall selection.

That means the Cardinals would be the worst team in the league under first-time head coach Mike LaFleur, who is rocking with Jacoby Brissett as his starting quarterback. But the Cardinals have some top-end talent including wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who has yet to put it all together in the NFL and Jeremiyah Love, who Arizona selected in the top of this year’s draft.

New York Jets

Kalshi gives the Jets a 17% chance of landing the No. 1 overall selection, which is a probability tied with the Dolphins.

The Jets would be a sound pick to land the No. 1 pick. They’re starting Geno Smith at quarterback. Even though they have Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall and just drafted David Bailey, they sold Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner at last year’s deadline. It’s a race to the bottom for Gang Green in Aaron Glenn’s second year as coach.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins pump-faked everyone when it looked like they were ready to contend with new head coach Jeff Haffley and free agent quarterback Malik Willis.

But Tyreek Hill won’t be back after last season’s gruesome leg injury and Jaylen Waddle was traded to the Denver Broncos this offseason. The Dolphins have a suspect offensive line to protect Willis and traded away all of their receivers in a confusing offseason that didn’t make much sense.

If Willis turns back into a pumpkin and makes Miami regret that contract, there’s probably no shame in tanking into the No. 1 pick. 

Cleveland Browns

The Browns have plenty of premium young talent. They hired 60-year-old head coach Todd Monken and looked ready to turn things around in his first season.

But they traded away Myles Garrett this offseason and neglected to improve their quarterback situation, which is widely viewed as the worst in football.

It’s hard to see this much young talent and a talented defense even without Garrett lose their way into the worst team in football, but without a franchise quarterback, the Browns shouldn’t mind the No. 1 selection. Kalshi gives Cleveland just an 8% chance of selecting first in April.