WNBA Picks Tuesday: Best Bets for Lynx, Fever and Aces

The All-Star Break is done and it is time for the WNBA season to pick up where it left off. To that end, the league has given us a five-game slate today with plenty of great betting opportunities. Let’s talk about which ones are the WNBA Best Bets for the day.

There are several good ones, but the following are my top picks (odds via FanDuel):

Toronto Tempo vs. Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota hasn’t beaten a team by more than 15.5 points since June 17 (99-83 vs. Sparks). In the nine games they were double digit favorites, they covered in only three. So, why should we believe they’ll cover this spread tonight? There are several reasons:

Napheesa Collier is back and proved before the break she is ready to play. There may be some hiccups as the Lynx figures out how to keep everyone involved. But that shouldn’t be an issue against the team with one of the worst defenses in the league (92.3 ppg allowed).

My Pick: Lynx -15.5 at -110

Collier’s return should fix many of Minnesota’s recent issues. Big spreads warrant caution, but Toronto can’t match a healthy Lynx team. Minnesota beat Toronto by 28 on May 21. I don’t expect another beatdown, but the Lynx should cover.

Indiana Fever vs. Seattle Storm

Indiana went into the All-Star Break absolutely rolling, averaging 105 points per game over the last five games while holding teams to 89.2 ppg. In the last five games leading up to the break, Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell averaged nearly 50 combined points per game (49.4).

Does a struggling Seattle team stand a chance?

The Storm averaged around 90 ppg over the last five games prior to the Break. But there defense allowed an average of 96 ppg. But they did give Indiana a good fight the last time these two played (July 17, 110-107).

My Pick: Indiana -9.5 at -110

Clark is probable, while Malonga is questionable. If Malonga sits, Mitchell, Clark, and Boston should thrive inside. If she plays (or if Clark sits), it will be more challenging, but Indiana still should cover.

Portland Fire vs. Las Vegas Aces

Las Vegas should absolutely win this game. They have one of the most explosive offenses in the league, not to mention the WNBA’s best player in A’ja Wilson. With Wilson and the roster rested and ready to go, Portland will have its hands full just trying to keep up.

However, based on how both teams were playing prior to the break, Portland may be able to do just that. They lost five of their last eight before the break but went 7-1 ATS. Vegas went 3-3 before the Break outright but 2-4 ATS. Vegas won both prior meetings but went 1-1 ATS.

My Pick: Portland +11.5 at -110

If this was a single-digit spread, I’d probably go the other way. But with how both teams were playing before the break, I don’t see Vegas dominating this game. The Aces will win, but not by double digits.