Best MLB Bets for Friday September 19th: Top Baseball Betting Picks Today

Three more series to go until the playoffs! I’m looking at the almost certain top two seeds in the NL today, though only backing one of them. Let’s go!

Season Record: 14-10-2, +4.18 Units

Phillies at Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks ML (-120 FanDuel)

It remains tough to ever fade the Phillies, but this just looks like a terrible spot for them. They’ve clinched the NL East and are a virtual lock to stay in at least the No. 2 seed, where they get that all-important first round bye. Yes, they can catch the Brewers three games above them, but that’s really it. They are a bit banged up now with Trea Turner, Alec Bohm and Edmundo Sosa on the bench. Plus they will roll out the incredibly uninspiring piggyback pitching tandem of Walker Buehler and Taiuan Walker tonight.

Buehler actually pitched well in his 1st outing with the Phils, going 5 IP while yielding 1 ER, 3 hits and a walk vs. 3 K’s. But on the season he’s still rocking a hideous 5.29 ERA and 1.54 WHIP with a career worst 16.4% K%. Walker is even worse with the K’s at 15.6%, though he’s done a decent job limiting dangerous contact with a 40.4% HardHit% and 7.8% Barrel%.

The Diamondbacks traded away or lost to injury half their lineup, but continue to hit pretty well as they’ve slashed 256/.325/.430 with a 108 wRC+ since the break. And they’ve miraculously vaulted themselves into the hunt for that last Wild Card spot. They start budding Ryan Nelson tonight. He’s shoved since the All-Star break with a 2.92 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He’s never been a huge whiff guy, though his 22.1% over this stretch tops his career 19% mark. He does limit the walks well, especially lately with a 5.4% BB% on this run.

If these teams meet in the playoffs, I will be hard pressed to take the DBacks. But the urgency of the moment and the much better SP pushes me towards Arizona tonight as modest favorites.

Brewers at Cardinals

Brewers ML (-118 FanDuel)

I don’t love road favorites, but we at least get a decent price in this one relative to the respective squads here. Unlike the Phillies, the Brewers still have not quite nailed down their division crown yet. They’ll start rookie sensation Jacob Misiorowski, who’s got a spectacular 33.3% K% in his first 60 IP in the majors. He just hasn’t mastered run prevention as his 4.35 ERA is just meh given his off the charts skills and advanced metrics.

Fortunately he gets a relatively easy task here as the Cards are the definition of mediocrity. Or maybe worse. They have an 83 wRC+ at home since August 1st and now will finish the season minus Wilson Contreras, their only hitter with as many as 20 homers or more than 66 RBI’s. The Cards start Sonny Gray, who’s an ace at times but also prone to some serious clunkers. 

I like the Brewers to take care of business.