Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford Fight Card Predictions: Best Bets and Sleeper Upsets

Here are the best bets for the Canelo vs. Crawford fight card at Allegiant Stadium on Saturday night live on Netflix.

Terence Crawford (+135) to beat Canelo Alvarez

I won’t pretend this conclusion was easily arrived at, but I can’t bring myself to go against Terence “Bud” Crawford and his undefeated 41-0-0 record on Saturday night. While Canelo’s two losses have come against two of modern history's most formidable opponents in Floyd Mayweather and Dmitry Bivol, we have seen him struggle to make statements against fighters of far less caliber than the first-ballot Hall of Famer in Crawford that he'll face on Saturday.

The main concern surrounding Crawford’s prospects is the fact that he’s moving up two weight classes to 168 lbs, while Canelo has the advantage of fighting near his native weight. Whether or not Crawford will struggle to carry that added weight in the later rounds on Saturday is a legitimate question, but Canelo isn’t exactly an endurance fighter at this stage of his career either.

I expect Crawford to build a slight advantage on the cards in the first half of the fight, largely because he’s a smart enough fighter to counter Canelo’s own intelligence. My assumption is that Canelo will be expecting Crawford to overplay his hand in the early rounds, but I actually think that an attacking strategy will work in Crawford's favor.

He’ll build an early advantage on the cards that will allow him to fight more patiently toward the end, thereby avoiding a significant energy mismatch in the later rounds that would give Canelo the opening he’ll probably be expecting.

Fernando Vargas Jr. by KO, TKO, or DQ (+500) vs. Callum Walsh

Callum Walsh enters Saturday’s co-main event against Las Vegas native Fernando Vargas Jr. as a rather significant favorite, but I see that as primarily being a product of Walsh’s name recognition as one of Dana White’s golden boys compared to Vargas Jr., who despite his father’s status as a super welterweight legend, has had far less resources in the sport.

Both fighters are undefeated knockout artists, but Vargas Jr. possesses more power than Walsh. There’s concern that the unproven crop of fighters that Vargas Jr. has faced in his career could leave him unprepared for a fellow high-level prospect like Walsh, who is a more well-rounded fighter overall, but I genuinely like Vargas Jr.’s chances to land an explosive left late in the fight that leaves Walsh in a position he doesn’t want to be in.

Sprinkle a little bit of pocket change on this one and you might be in for a pleasant surprise.