MLB Best Bets for Monday: Giants Value and Rangers-Angels Under

I know we’re in the middle of soccer season, but hey baseball is here too! We have the All Star Break next week, so let’s try to bank some winners before the break

Season Record 42-40-2, -0.78 Units

Blue Jays at Giants

Giants ML (+100 Caesars)

The Blue Jays visit the Bay Area tonight to take on the Giants in a battle of two of the more underwhelming teams in MLB. Toronto’s only real talent at the plate this year is avoiding strikeouts. They’re 3rd best in MLB with just a 20% K%, but yet the scored the 2nd fewest runs in the sport (congrats hapless Padres). And they’re trending worse as they have a 92 wRC+ on the season, but just 88 over the last 30 days and 68 over the last 14. The Giants meanwhile have trended the other way. At the end of April they had an 82 wRC+, but since then they have a 111 wRC+, 5th best in the league. In fact they will very likely start a lineup where all but their catcher has a wRC+ roughly between 100 and 150 back to the beginning of May. Rafael Devers has had some clownish moments, like when he tried to refuse a pinch runner. But he’s mashing since then at .270/.343/.586 with 16 of his 18 homers.

The Jays are just a bucket of meh. Vlad Guerrero Jr. has just 4 homers on the year which is kind of mindboggling. He’s slugging just .349, way below his career .484 level. It’s not just him, Kazuma Okamoto with 19 homers is the only Blue Jay to hit more than 8. They’re still very much alive in the AL Wild Card chase where you just have to be .500 now to get a spot in the postseason. But it’s mostly thanks to their decent pitching.

Rule 5 pickup Spencer Miles is expected to get the “bulk” duties tonight against his former organization, and he’s very good this year with a 2.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The main issue is length as he hasn’t gone more than 3 IP since May 26th or 4.1 IP at any point. The Giants counter with Trevor McDonald who sports just a 4.42 ERA, though xERA and SIERA both peg him at about 3.90 He’s been on the inconsistent side, but good lately with just 3 ER, 8 hits and 1 BB allowed in his last 2 start over 11.1 IP with 8 K’s. I trust this Giants offense way more and while Miles looks good, he’s just not stretched out enough to cover much of the game. Let’s go with the Giants.

Angels at Rangers

Under 7 (-105 FanDuel)

Jose Soriano and his awful Angels head to the Globe Life Field, the park that’s second best at suppressing runs over the last 3 seasons. And they go up against Jacob Degrom who can prevent runs well in any ballpark with his 25% K-BB%. The Rangers already lousy offense is down arguably their two best hitters as Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford are both on the IL (as is very often the case).Josh Jung might miss the game as well. No matter who’s in there, Soriano is pretty good too with a 3.42 ERA as he specializes in keeping the ball on the ground. As long as those worm burners stay near his fielders, I just don’t see many runs scored here tonight.