Chiefs vs. Bills Jaguars Monday Night Football Week 5 Betting Predictions

The Kansas City Chiefs will travel for a matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football. The Jaguars have quietly performed well this season, bringing a 3-1 record into this game. The Chiefs sputtered early on, but they’ve won two consecutive games to bring their overall record to 2-2.

This feels like the ideal situation where we can sell high on the Jacksonville defense. They’ve been dominant through four games, ranking fifth in the NFL in points allowed (.290) per game. They do rank 12th in yards per play (5.1), and they’re allowing a touchdown on only 44.4% of their red zone series.

Although the metrics look good, I want to sell high because of their schedule. Jacksonville’s faced four terrible offenses, and it’s allowed them to find sustained defensive success that won’t come against better teams. Here is how their opponents rank in points per play thus far:

• Carolina Panthers - .291 (26th)
• Cincinnati Bengals - .292 (25th)
• Houston Texans - .282 (29th)
• San Francisco 49ers - .305 (24th)

Although it’s fair to argue that those teams are all that bad in part because they played Jacksonville, I’d argue we can look to the Cincinnati game to find more information.

Joe Burrow was injured against the Jaguars. Jake Browning stepped in, and Cincinnati scored 31 points. Since then, the Bengals have scored 10, 3, and 24 with Browning at quarterback. It’s also important to note that Cincinnati posted only 3 points in the first three quarters of a blowout loss to the Detroit Lions before adding 21 points in the fourth quarter.

On the other side, we’re somewhat buying low on the Kansas City offense. They went off in Week 4, and it isn’t a coincidence that Xavier Worthy returned in that game. He adds another layer to an offense that desperately needs him as a playmaker.

On the season, the Chiefs only rank 17th in points (.385) per play. They posted .529 points per play against the Baltimore Ravens last week, though. Granted, the Ravens defense is a shell of what it once was because of injuries, but it’s impressive nonetheless.

Worthy was added to the injury report late in the week, which is never a good sign, but it still looks as if he’s going to play in this game. If that’s the case, the Chiefs can continue to build on their recent success with one of their star players making a key difference.

Where to Bet: Kansas City Chiefs over 23.5 points | -136 at FanDuel Sportsbook

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 6-12