College Football Playoff Odds: LSU Overrated, Ole Miss Underrated

With this college football season filled with upsets, every team's in the race to win the national title. Georgia, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Miami have been favorites to win the title since the start of the season, but other teams have quickly climbed into the top of the polls.

Some teams, like Florida, were in the top 10 for only one week, while others have battled to stay at the top of the rankings. I’m here to give you what I think is the most undervalued team to win the national title, and the team Vegas is way too overvaluing to come out of the CFP.

Overrated: LSU +1200

The Tigers currently have the 6th-best odds in the nation to win the title, but have they done anything to earn those odds? LSU’s best wins so far are close road losses to Ole Miss and Kentucky. They have a chance this week to pick up a big win against a Bama team that’s been in a bit of a spiral the last three weeks.

My problem with LSU is that they don’t have either of the things I want in a contender. Michigan is getting the most hate for paying Bryce Underwood, but Sam Leavitt is getting paid to be a top-5 player in college football, and he’s never been close to that. Leavitt refuses to sit in the pocket and play on time, and now that he’s in the SEC, he can’t use his athleticism to play out of structure.

My other biggest issue is LSU’s defense. The Tiger defense has looked great against a bad Texas A&M or Auburn offense, but when they needed to show up in their two ranked games, they were nowhere to be found. In both ranked games, they’ve averaged just 1.5 sacks against teams with poor offensive lines and forced only 1 turnover. They aren’t great at playing straight up, and they aren’t like Alabama, which can at least force big turnovers. I’d avoid betting on LSU.

Underrated: Ole Miss +2000

I just talked about how important a good defense is in college football, and you certainly won’t find that here with Ole Miss, but over the last two seasons, the Rebels have gone as far as Trinidad Chambliss has taken them.

My only concern with Chambliss right now is the turnovers. He already has seven interceptions this year, four more than his entire 2025 season; that being said, I still have complete faith in this Ole Miss offense.

Ole Miss's real X-factor isn’t Chambliss; it’s Kewan Lacy. You know Chambliss will make magic in big games, but he hasn’t looked nearly as elite when the Rebels can’t run the ball. When Lacy was injured in the Florida loss, the offense looked pedestrian, and when they couldn’t establish a run game against Texas, Chambliss felt he needed to play hero ball and threw three interceptions.

Fortunately, there won't be many run defenses like Texas in the playoffs, and if they avoid the Longhorns, I expect them to score on anyone they face. Also, +2000 is just amazing value for a team with the best player in the nation.