College Football Week 5 Best Bets: Ohio State, Ole Miss, Alabama Picks

Weeks like this don’t come up too often in the college football season. The past few weeks had been fun slates, but nothing more than that. 

This week is why we watch football. Let’s get into the picks.

#21 USC (4-0) -6.5 vs #23 Illinois (3-1) | Total: 60.5

I might have been incredibly wrong about Illinois last week, but I think Vegas has overcorrected on them. They are still a solid football team, despite everything they put on tape last week.

I think Bielema gets this team back on schedule, and unlike the Indiana game, they’re able to control the pace of this game back at home. Also, I wasn’t very impressed in USC’s first two Big 10 games on the season.

Pick: u60.5
Lean: Illinois (+6.5)

#1 Ohio State (3-0) -7.5 vs Washington (3-0) | Total: 51.5

Ohio State’s last game against Ohio was not nearly as close as the score made it seem. Between that and Julian Sayin taking his first start on the road, I can see why Vegas has shifted this line down from 10.5; however, don’t overthink it.

Washington is not that great, and I don’t see how their offense will be able to move the ball against Ohio State. This might stay close for a little while, but I’m starting to trust Ohio State’s ability to run the ball with Bo Jackson. Also, Jeremiah Smith is a freak; there's not much more to that.

Ohio State wins a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Ohio State (-7.5)
Lean: u51.5

#4 LSU (4-0) vs #13 Ole Miss (4-0) -1.5 | Total: 56.5

In my top 10 rankings the past few weeks, I’ve been stating my frustrations with LSU. They can’t run the ball, Garrett Nussmeier has not been very sharp, and the defense might be good, but they haven’t played a competent offense yet.

Trinidad Chambliss and this Ole Miss offense is the best test yet for LSU. Lane Kiffin, with some added outside motivation, will blow out LSU. Ole Miss is my play of the week, and I also like the over.

Pick: Ole Miss (-1.5) and o56.5

#6 Oregon (4-0) vs #3 Penn State (3-0) -3.5 | Total: 52.5

This game is pretty simple. Can James Franklin win a big game?

Last season, Franklin did win two playoff games, but was anyone impressed with wins over SMU or Boise State? I certainly wasn’t. He’s got his chance now, with a night game and a white-out crowd behind the Nittany Lions; they have to get the early-season win.

I just don’t trust Drew Allar. He’s the epitome of average. Like former Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg, being big and having a big arm doesn’t make a QB any good. Dante Moore is easily the best quarterback in this game, and I think that’ll be the difference. Penn State has to prove it in a big game before I bet on them to get it done.

Pick: Oregon (+3.5)

#17 Alabama (3-1) vs #5 Georgia (3-0) -3.5 | Total: 53.5

Kirby Smart’s one kryptonite at Georgia has been Alabama. He’s 1-6 against the Tide, and I don’t think this week will be any different.

Georgia’s Gunnar Stockon did impress me in his come-from-behind win against Tennessee, but it took a miracle for them to pull this win off. I’m not entirely sold on Georgia yet, and I still somewhat believe in Alabama. Kalen DeBoer hasn’t made a ton of reasons to believe in this iteration of Alabama, but I think the receivers and Ty Simpson are really good.

This game will be a shoot-out, and I think Bama pulls off the “upset.”

Pick: o53.5
Lean: Bama (+3.5)

2025 Record:
Picks: 18-14
Leans: 6-13