Commanders vs. Dolphins Week 11 Spain Game Top Betting Picks, Predictions

The Miami Dolphins and Washington Commanders will travel to Madrid, Spain, for a game at Bernabéu Stadium. These have been two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this season, with both entering the matchup at 3–7.

These are two bad teams overall. They’ve both been relatively average on offense and bad on defense. Still, they seem to be trending in different directions.

Miami ranks 18th on the season in points (.376) per play. That number ticks up slightly to .389 over their last three games. It’s important to note, though, that Miami has been a drastically better offense at home this season — and that could be an issue this week.

More importantly, the Dolphins have found some semblance of a defense in recent weeks. Overall, they rank 27th in points allowed (.433) per play. That number plummets to .300 over their last three games.

The Commanders have fairly similar overall numbers to Miami this season. They rank 16th in the NFL in points (.385) per play, though that includes the games Jayden Daniels was healthy. Over their last three, Washington is averaging just .261 points per play.

Defensively, Washington has been even worse. They rank 28th in points allowed (.452) per play, and that number balloons to .601 over their last three. They were a bad defense early in the season, and they’ve somehow gotten worse.

We’re now in a situation where neither side of the ball is likely to improve for Washington. Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin — two of the team’s most important offensive players — have already been ruled out. On defense, Daron Payne is suspended.

It’s impossible to fully trust Miami at this point in the season. They aren’t a team that travels well, though they do still have a few explosive offensive pieces. The big difference in this matchup is that Washington appears completely lost.

The Commanders don’t have any firepower. They can’t run the ball, and Marcus Mariota isn’t going to elevate the offense through the air — especially without McLaurin. Miami’s defense is starting to ramp up, and this sets up as another favorable matchup.

On the other side, Washington hasn’t been able to slow anyone down, and Miami has at least shown flashes of scoring upside. Ultimately, one of these teams is trending in the right direction while the other is falling apart.

Where to Bet: Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 16–25