Diamondbacks vs. Braves Prediction: Best Bets for Friday Aug. 14

The Arizona Diamondbacks (64-58) and the Atlanta Braves (73-48) meet at Truist Park on Friday at suburban Atlanta for the opener of a three-game series. First pitch is scheduled at 7:15 p.m. ET.

These teams haven’t met since April 2-5 when they split a four-game series at Chase Field in Phoenix, while also splitting the Over-Under 2-2.

The Diamondbacks are a half-game behind the Philadelphia Phillies for the final spot in the National League, while posting a plus-11 run differential. The Diamondbacks are just 28-31 on the road this season.

The Braves have a nine-game cushion in the NL East over the aforementioned Phillies, while posting an impressive 41-21 record at home, which is the best mark in the NL, and second-best home record in the majors. Atlanta is just 11-11 against the NL West this season.

Arizona enters play dropping two of three against the lowly Colorado Rockies at home, including a 6-4 loss in the series finale Wednesday. Since Aug. 2, the Diamondbacks are just 5-6, while the Under is 7-4 in that 11-game span.

Atlanta took two of three from the New York Mets earlier this season, and the Braves are 11-3 in the past 14 games since July 29. In the past 13 outings, Atlanta’s offense is averaging 5.0 runs per game (RPG), but the pitching staff has allowed three or fewer runs in 10 of the previous 12 contests.

The Diamondbacks turn to RHP Brandon Pfaadt (6-1, 3.36 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) for Friday’s series opener. He has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball lately, going 5-0 with a sparkling 1.28 ERA and 0.99 WHIP across the past seven starts over 42 ⅓ IP, walking just six batters.

Pfaadt isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, and he never has been, nor will he ever be. However, he knows how to keep the ball down, and keep it in the park. He has not allowed a home run in his past seven starts since the San Francisco Giants hit one back on June 30.

The Braves are expected to counter with LHP Chris Sale (12-7, 2.20 ERA, 1.02 WHIP). He has lasted at least six innings in each of the past four outings, all quality starts. Sale has also struck out at least eight batters in each of his past three starts, too.

The Diamondbacks are 19-9 vs. LHP this season, and Pfaadt has been red-hot, so let’s go with the DIAMONDBACKS +1.5 (-130) on the run line as the underdog, as we should get a low-scoring, well-pitched game. As such, we’ll also rock with the UNDER 8.5 (-124), and go rather aggressively on that one.