What Went Wrong for Baseball’s Biggest Underachievers in 2026

No matter its imperfections, Baseball Prospectus' preseason PECOTA projections seem like a fair place to start when trying to square why teams that were expected to contend before the season have ended up falling flat as we approach the midway point of 2026.

PECOTA had the New York Mets winning about 88 games, a fair estimate for a team having allocated $333 million in payroll for 2026. Instead, they are 34-41, buried in the NL East and five games back in the NL Wild Card with seven teams to climb over.

Injuries, namely to shortstop Francisco Lindor, infielder Jorge Polanco and outfielder Luis Robert, are a big part of the story. But they're not the only reason New York has a bottom-five offense. Bo Bichette has underperformed, as has Marcus Semien (or maybe he's just gotten old). Brett Baty and Mark Vientos aren't developing.

Pitching has been OK. Right-handers Nolan McLean and Freddy Peralta have been pretty good, but not great. The bullpen has performed well after a rough start. If all goes right for the Mets in the second half (ha!), perhaps they reach .500.

PECOTA liked the Kansas City Royals to win 84 games and narrowly edge the field in the AL Central, but only a few teams have played worse. Sitting in last place, the Royals came into action 20th in runs allowed and 17th in runs scored.

Bobby Witt is performing about as expected, but an MCL sprain has everyone holding their breath. Salvador Perez has 10 homers but at 36 years old could be entering his final phase. Vinnie Pasquantino is hurt but was underperforming until going on the injured list. Jac Caglianone appears to be developing into in a strong offensive player -- but they'e about three or four more guys like him short.

The starting rotation has been OK, but with left-handers Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic injured periodically, the group doesn't have a high ceiling. The bullpen has been a big disappointment, except for Daniel Lynch IV.

The Baltimore Orioles have been disappointing roughly since the midpoint of the 2024 season, and they continue to slog along. PECOTA gave them a 50% shot to make the playoffs and, helped by a weak American League field they were 3 1/2 games back in AL Wild Card heading into their game Saturday night. Making the playoffs just seems like a taller order than they can reach.

The offense has heated up in recent weeks, though few individuals are having great seasons at bat. Free-agent import Pete Alonso has been just OK. Gunnar Henderson took a step back from superstar status in '25, but is producing at just a league-average rate this season.

The starting pitching has been mediocre, but Shane Baz, Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish seem capable of more. The bullpen has been a disappointment, not only because of Ryan Helsey and Keegan Akin, but that's a good place to start.

PECOTA might have been onto something with the Detroit Tigers, who were projected to win 83 games. That likely caught a lot of people by surprise, but it's possibly still too high.

Even after taking two games from the front-running White Sox, the Tigers remained 12 games under .500 and barely ahead of last place in the AL Central. They've missed left-hander Tarik Skubal for about 5 1/2 weeks because of elbow surgery, but he looked strong in his recent return.

Free-agent left-hander Framber Valdez is trending up, but he's been league average overall, and his poor start is a big reason for the Tigers struggles early. The bullpen has been much less effective than it was down the stretch and in the playoffs in 2025.

The offense has gotten strong performances from rookie infielder Kevin McGonagle, catcher Dillon Dingler and outfielder Riley Greene (again). Gleyber Torres and Kerry Carpenter have been solid, but also have missed time with injuries.

The Houston Astros looked like an 85-win team per PECOTA, and they could get there (and the AL Wild Card) after starting 36-42. But with shortstop Jeremy Peña missing 30-plus games because of injuries, third baseman Carlos Correa having season-ending ankle surgery after 32 games, and ace right-hander Hunter Brown missing all but three starts so far, it's not really a fair fight. Not to mention: closer Josh Hader has pitched in seven games.

PECOTA projected the San Francisco Giants to win 82 games and compete for an NL Wild Card under new manager Tony Vitello, but only two teams in the majors have worse records.

The offense has been good, tied for seventh in runs scored heading into Saturday night action. However, slow starts by individuals including Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Harrison Bader helped to put the Giants way behind the pack.

Only the Rockies starting pitchers have allowed more runs, though Logan Webb is rounding into form, while Landon Roupp and Trevor McDonald (sometimes) have been effective.