Diamondbacks vs. Padres Friday Best Betting Picks and Predictions

The Arizona Diamondbacks (85-74) and San Diego Padres (89-70) open a 3-game series at Petco Park in San Diego on Friday, with a first pitch at 9:40 p.m. ET.

The Diamondbacks enter play two games behind the Philadelphia Phillies for the final wild-card spot in the National League, while the Padres have clinched a spot in the postseason, leading the Phillies by two games.

Arizona hits the road with a 40-38 record, while San Diego has managed a 49-29 mark at home. The Diamondbacks have posted an impressive 31-18 record against the National League West, while the Padres are 30-19 inside the division.

Friday's MLB best betting pick for Diamondbacks vs. Padres

The Diamondbacks have played their best baseball, perhaps of the entire season, in the past week, winning five in a row, averaging 7.4 runs per game (RPG), while allowing 4.0 RPG. The Over has cashed in four of the past six outings. However, the Under is 8-1 in the past nine games on the road for Arizona.

The Padres took two of three from the Los Angeles Dodgers earlier this week, averaging 3.0 RPG, while allowing 3.4 RPG. The Under cashed in all three games after an 11-0-1 run in the prior 12 games from Sept. 8-20.

Arizona turns to RHP Brandon Pfaadt (7-3, 3.72 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) across 18 starts and 28 total appearances, while going 7-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.03 WHIP across his past 15 starts in 90.1 IP.

The Diamondbacks’ righty is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA across two starts and three appearances in 14.2 IP against the Padres, while recording 14 strikeouts. San Diego has managed just a .208 batting average against him, too.

For San Diego, RHP Casey Mize (6-9, 3.96 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) is the projected starter. He hasn’t been great since coming over the Detroit Tigers at the non-waiver trade deadline, going 2-3 with a 6.64 ERA and 1.62 WHIP across nine starts, while posting a -0.9 WAR. That’s not exactly what the Padres envisioned when it acquired him for a deep playoff run.

Mize is also 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA across two starts over 9.1 IP, and the Diamondbacks are hitting .342 against him this season.

In 10 meetings this season, these teams have settled nothing, going 5-5 against each other. The Over cashed in two of the past three games, while going 3-3 in Phoenix, while the Over-Under is also 3-3.

Based on the pitching matchup, we’ll back the PADRES ML (-132) as home favorites, while going UNDER 7.5 (-112), as this should have a playoff-like atmosphere and intensity.