Dolphins vs Steelers Monday Night Football Week 15 Betting Picks

The Miami Dolphins will travel for an AFC matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football. The Steelers boast a 7-6 record, and they’re still playing to clinch their spot in the playoffs. The Dolphins sit at 6-7, but there’s a very small chance they sneak their way into the postseason this year.

This is a relatively simple case where I trust the defenses drastically more than the offenses at this point. The temperature will also be in the teens for the majority of the game, giving another small edge to the defenses.

Miami featured an atrocious defense early in the season, but that hasn’t been the case recently. Overall, they rank 16th in the NFL in points (.379) allowed per play in 2025. They rank second in the same category (.211) over their last three games.

Granted, the Dolphins played an extremely soft schedule in those contests. They held the New York Jets, New Orleans Saints, and Washington Commanders to only 13.3 points per game. Before that, they also held the Buffalo Bills and Atlanta Falcons to only 23 total points, although the Baltimore Ravens posted 28 against them in between those games.

Pittsburgh’s seen some ups and downs defensively this season, but they still rank 12th in the NFL in points (.347) allowed per play. That number also drops to .322 at home. They haven’t been as dominant a defense as most were expecting, but they still have found plenty of success.

We have two solid offenses overall on the other side of the ball, but that may not be the case in Pittsburgh. First, the Steelers have struggled at times to score points at home. They’re averaging .393 points per play, or 23.7 points per game, in Pittsburgh.

The Dolphins' offense also hasn’t traveled well this season. They’re averaging .382 points per play overall this season, and that number dips to .360 on the road. Overall, they’re averaging 20.4 points per game outside of Miami.

The other key to the under is that neither team pushes the pace in their games. The Steelers rank as an average offense in seconds per play, while the Dolphins rank near the bottom of the NFL.

We should get a slower-paced game between two teams who have relied more on their defenses in recent weeks. 

Where to Bet: Miami Dolphins & Pittsburgh Steelers under 42.5 points | -110 at BetMGM

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 22-31