Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Commanders Betting Picks & Predictions

The Green Bay Packers will host the Washington Commanders on Thursday Night Football. 

My initial bet was to move the spread from -3.5 to -2.5, beating the key number of 3. Sportsbooks are keen to that in 2025, though, and the odds shift far too much. We can pay 24 extra cents to grab the moneyline (essentially 2.5 extra points), and that’s what I’m opting to do here.

The Green Bay Packers dominated the Detroit Lions in Week 1. I was as impressed with them as I was unimpressed with Detroit. Truthfully, it’s difficult to know whether the Packers are a true Super Bowl contender (likely) or the Lions are a drastically worse team without their coordinators (also likely).

The Washington Commanders also looked outstanding in Week 1, beating the New York Giants by multiple scores. Washington’s defense was the star in that game, as New York couldn’t get anything going offensively. Although the offense did find some success, they weren’t as dominant as one would expect in that type of matchup.

The key to this bet is the Washington run defense. They dominated New York in Week 1, holding Tyrone Tracy, Devin Singletary, and Cam Skattebo to 30 yards on 15 carries. They’ll need to slow down Josh Jacobs and company to stop Green Bay from controlling this game.

Washington struggled against the run in 2024, allowing the second-most yards (5.0) per carry in the NFL. They added a couple of new bodies to their defensive front, and that helped in Week 1. I don’t expect this to be a long-term fix, though.

They brought in Javon Kinlaw and Deatrich Wise Jr., who both played well in Week 1. Historically, they aren’t good defenders against the run, though. Ultimately, I’d expect this defense to be closer to 2024 than what they showed against New York.

The Packers showed in Week 1 that they’re willing to control the game with Jacobs. They used their passing game to get an early lead before consistently wasting the clock throughout the second half. They have several ways to beat opponents, most of which start with the run game.

The Commanders still boast a high-upside offense. They have several big-play threats, specifically with quarterback Jayden Daniels. Their offense will become much less dynamic if Green Bay can control the game, though.

The Packers have several elite pass rushers, specifically with Micah Parsons joining the team. Once an opponent needs to throw against them, it becomes much more difficult to produce. Green Bay also looked outstanding against the run, shutting down David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, which could force Washington to focus on their passing game earlier than they’d want.

The final aspect of this game is that it’s a home matchup on short notice for the Packers. That gives them a major edge. The only aspect working in Washington’s favor is that they’re healthy, and Green Bay is dealing with a few key injuries, although no one has been ruled out as of now.

Where to Bet: Green Bay Packers moneyline | -170 at DraftKings Sportsbook

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 1-3