Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots NFL Playoffs Betting Picks, Predictions

The New England Patriots will host the Houston Texans to see who are the favorites to go to the Super Bowl for the AFC. I may be getting ahead of myself, but Bo Nix suffered a serious injury in the Denver Broncos win last night, and the winner of this game will be the clear favorite in the AFC Championship game.

As is the case with virtually all of the Houston games, I’m expecting a defensive battle here. They feature arguably the best defense in the NFL this season, and I don’t expect that to change this week.

The Texans are giving up the second-fewest points (.289) per play in 2025. That number also drops to a ridiculous .250 on the road this season. Overall, they’re allowing only 16.7 points per game, and 14.3 on the road.

The Patriots have a solid offense, but they’ve coasted with an easy schedule for the majority of the season. They haven’t faced off against a single top-10 defense (in points allowed per play).

New England has played the Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers, who rank 11th and 12th in the category, though. In those games, they combined for only 30 points.

On the other side, the Patriots have also featured an outstanding defense. They rank fifth in the NFL in points allowed (.313) per play. That number dips to .292 at home as well. They’re giving up only 16.7 points per game in Foxborough this season.

Houston’s generally struggled on offense because of their lack of an offensive line this season. CJ Stroud has consistently been under pressure, but he’s been solid when he gets a clean pocket.

I have mixed feelings about this game because the Patriots don’t pressure quarterbacks at an elite rate. Still, Stroud has been inconsistent throughout the season, and the Texans will be without Nico Collins in this game. It gives an edge to the New England defense.

The final point leaning toward the under is the pace. Both of these teams love to slow the pace down in their games. If either one finds success on the ground, they could sustain long drives that take up plenty of clock.

Ultimately, I prefer both defenses to the offenses, and I believe they could struggle to find big plays throughout this game.

Where to Bet: Houston Texans & New England Patriots under 40.5 points | -105 at Caesars Sportsbook

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 27–45