Indiana, Miami open as CFP semifinal favorites

Field Level Media|published: Fri 2nd January, 24:32 2026

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) looks to pass downfield against Alabama Crimson Tide on Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026, during the Rose Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena, Calif.

Indiana emerged as the lone team with a bye to win in the College Football Playoff semifinals, and the Hoosiers are now the clear favorite to win the national title.

Following a 38-3 dismantling of ninth-seeded Alabama, top-seeded Indiana was installed as a consensus 4.0-point favorite to beat Oregon in the Peach Bowl at Atlanta on Jan. 9. The fifth-seeded Ducks opened Saturday's three-game slate with a 23-0 victory over fourth-seeded Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl.

Indiana is the +135 favorite at DraftKings to win the championship. That's ahead of Oregon and Miami at +300.

The 10th-seeded Hurricanes opened the quarterfinals with a 24-14 upset of second-seeded Ohio State on New Year's Eve in the Cotton Bowl at Arlington, Texas. Miami had to wait until the final game on Saturday to learn who its opponent will be in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 8 at Glendale, Ariz.

Sixth-seeded Ole Miss survived a wild game against third-seeded Georgia, winning the Sugar Bowl 39-34 on a last-minute field goal and a safety on the ensuing kickoff.

Ole Miss was installed as a 3.0-point underdog against Miami by DraftKings, which also had the Rebels with the longest remaining title odds at +550.

Indiana (14-0) became the first top-four seed to win a game in the 12-team CFP, after teams with a bye went 0-6 to start the expanded playoff era. Georgia became the seventh loser following a bye week later on Saturday.

"It's definitely a huge struggle," Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza said. "I think Coach (Curt) Cignetti did a fantastic job of a trickle-down effect of really making sure there was no complacency. You have 26 days off, it's very tough."

The Peach Bowl semifinal will be a rematch of an Oct. 11 game at Eugene, Ore., when the Hoosiers beat the Ducks 30-20.

"I'm not going to assume anything like we've bounced back from a lot of big wins and we'll be fine," Cignetti said. "Because it's a process. We'll have a very big challenge ahead of us next week. It's very hard to beat a very good football team twice."

--Field Level Media