Jets vs. Dolphins Monday Night Football Week 4 Betting Predictions

The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets will face off in [essentially] a playoff eliminator. Both of these teams have massive uphill climbs to potentially make the playoffs, but the loser of this game’s chances basically shift to 0%.

Both of these teams have seen mixed results offensively this season. They’ve also both struggled quite a bit defensively. It points to the over, but there has to be some regression at some point.

The Dolphins currently rank fourth in the NFL in red zone touchdown rate (83.3%) through three games. The Jets have also found tremendous success ranking fifth in the same category (75%). It’s only a matter of time before both teams falter in those situations.

We have indicators to tell us that these numbers aren’t sustainable. Miami’s offense has flashed at times, but they still only rank 11th in the NFL in yards per play (5.4). New York hasn’t been nearly as successful, ranking 24th in that category (4.7).

Both of these teams are going to look to keep the clock moving. Miami plays fast, but they consistently work quick throws that don’t stop the clock. New York plays at an average pace, but they’re going to look to lean heavily on the run.

This game is going to need 5+ touchdowns to beat this total. Even with 5 touchdowns, they’d need 4 field goals, which is highly unlikely. It’d be a game where two struggling offenses need a total of 9 scores.

If either of these teams starts to struggle in the red zone, the over is going to be extremely difficult to hit. They’re going to need to be efficient, and there’s nothing that truly suggests that’s going to continue to be the case.

I do want to note that we aren’t banking on two elite defenses here. New York was expected to feature an outstanding defense, and I’d anticipate that they get better than they’ve been. Miami has struggled against everyone, and there’s virtually nothing to suggest they’re going to turn their season around.

The key here is the clock and the number of touchdowns. There’s very little room for error because of the way these two teams are looking to play. If both offenses aren’t efficient in the red zone, they’re going to struggle to beat this total.

Where to Bet: Miami Dolphins & New York Jets under 45.5 points | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 5-8