Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Thursday Night Football Week 3 Betting Predictions

The Buffalo Bills get a home matchup against the divisional rival Miami Dolphins on Thursday. These two teams are trending in opposite directions early in the 2025 season. Buffalo boasts an impressive 2-0 record, while Miami enters this game winless.

The Bills' offense picked up where it left off in 2024. They ranked second in points per play (.500) last season, while averaging .477 PPP through two starts in 2025. It’s also worth noting that they spent time running out the clock in their second game, which was a blowout victory against the New York Jets.

The Dolphins had a fairly average defense last season, but that hasn’t been the case early in 2025. They ranked 15th in the NFL in points allowed per play (.360) in 2024. That number has jumped to .528 through two games this season.

Arguably, the biggest surprise for Miami’s struggles is their opponents. The Indianapolis Colts have looked good early on, but they aren’t an offense that projects to consistently score 30+ points. The New England Patriots are another questionable offense that posted 33 points [with a kick return TD] against Miami.

Buffalo is going to be the best offense the Dolphins have faced at this point, and it isn’t particularly close. They posted 41 points in a close win over the Baltimore Ravens before recording 30 points in a blowout win against New York.

There is the obvious concern of the blowout here. The Bills are likely to take their foot off the gas later in the game as double-digit favorites. If that’s the case, they’ve likely already found plenty of offensive success.

The easiest way to beat point totals is explosive plays, specifically early in games. Miami’s defense has consistently struggled with explosive plays early in the season.

The Dolphins allowed a 21-yard run and a 55-yard reception to Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 2. They also gave up 15+ yard plays to Austin Hooper, Antonio Gibson, Kayshon Boutte, and TreVeyon Henderson. The Colts were even better in this area, with seven players recording a 15+ yard play in their game.

The Bills were playing from behind, looking for chunk yardage, but they had six different players record 20+ yard receptions against Baltimore. James Cook and Josh Allen both recorded 40+ yard runs against New York last week, as well.

I don’t fully expect Buffalo to completely stop Miami’s offense, as they have several big-play options on their roster. Instead, I’m looking for one of the best offenses in the NFL to perform against one of the worst defenses, even at a high number.

Where to Bet: Buffalo Bills over 30.5 total points | -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 3-5