MLB Best Bet Today: Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick

We have five days of MLB games under the belt, time to throw out all our preseason assumptions? Well, probably not. But hey, we have a little to go on.

And that leads me to an MLB pick for today.

Season Record 1-2, -1.17 Units

Angels at Cubs

Angels F5 (+124 DraftKings)

Yes, the Angels look like one of the worst teams in MLB while the Cubs should emerge as one of the best. But it’s extremely early in the season….so early in fact that Cubs starter Jameson Taillon has yet to take the mound in a game that matters. We did see him a bunch in games that didn’t matter and….oh my, it was not pretty.

In 13.1 innings over five outings in the Arizona sun and heat Taillon gave up 10 (!) homers and 26 earned runs. He had 12 K’s (16.2% K%) vs. 9 walks (12.2 BB%). I know we should not take all that much from spring training stats, especially for a vet like Taillon. Maybe he was working on a new pitch shape or whatever. But that kind of line is really hard to completely ignore. His last start he elevated to tolerable bad (4 IP, 6 K’s, 2 BB’s, 2 HR’s, 3 ER). I could absolutely see him with a vaguely similar line today.

The Angels will likely finish in last in the AL West, but mostly because of their pitching. 

But they have their nominal ace on the hill today in the person of Jose Soriano. The Angels righty sat at about 97 MPH on his fastball and cranked it up to 99 on opening day vs. Houston, but he’s oddly not a big K guy. He had just a 21% K% last season, though he did fan 7 Astros for a 29% K% with a stellar 18.7% SwStr%. 

What he usually does is keep the ball on the ground in an extreme way as his 65.3% GB% and -2.4 LA both ranked 1st in MLB last season. That can cut both ways of course as you need your infielders to gobble up the worm burners, and the Angels have a lousy D. But hey, if he can ramp up the K’s like he did last Thursday, he’s an ace in the making.

The Angels offense will probably level off to meh as the season goes on, but they’ve gotten off to a fast start with a 130 wRC+ that ranks 4th in the league. Mike Trout has exploded out of the gate at .353/.542/.706 . If he can turn back the page a bit, and Nolan Schanuel shows his offseason improvements are real (.350/.458/ .650 so far) then this looks like a dangerous lineup. Jo Adell, Jorge Soler and Zach Neto all have 30 HR pop as well.

The Angels bullpen might be scary bad, so let’s just stick with the F5 here and take advantage of some hot bats and a super favorable pitching matchup.