MLB Best Bets July 30: Top Predictions for Tuesday's Baseball Slate

The trade deadline is Thursday, and some teams are still deciding whether to buy or sell. For others, the choice is clearer.

The Kansas City Royals showed their hand by signing right-hander Seth Lugo to an extension instead of shopping him. The Seattle Mariners are seeking a third baseman and considering a reunion with Eugenio Suárez.

The Arizona Diamondbacks could be open to parting with Suárez—and his 36 home runs—as they inch closer to acknowledging they’re not true contenders. Let’s break down Tuesday’s games for all three clubs.

Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals

The Royals signed Lugo to a two-year, $46 million extension through 2027 after he posted a 2.98 ERA over 52 starts with the club. Though he turns 36 this offseason, Lugo has logged only 960 2/3 career innings due to spending most of his career as a reliever—until the San Diego Padres made him a full-time starter in 2023.

Lugo (7-5, 2.95 ERA) has won his past four decisions entering Tuesday’s start and consistently gives Kansas City a chance to win. He finished second in last year’s American League Cy Young Award voting, and retaining him signals that the Royals still believe they can secure a wild-card berth.

Atlanta, meanwhile, is 15 games under .500 and riddled with injuries. The Braves currently have five starters on the injured list, prompting Sunday’s acquisition of right-hander Erick Fedde (3-10, 5.22 ERA). He’s struggled mightily, allowing six or more runs in three of his last five starts with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Pick: Over 9.5 runs (-106, DraftKings)

Arizona Diamondbacks at Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are running away with the AL Central, boasting a nine-game lead and looking like a legitimate postseason threat. Detroit could add talent ahead of the deadline to bolster its October chances.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, are fading fast. They’re seven games out in the National League wild-card race and have already dealt first baseman Josh Naylor and outfielder Randal Grichuk. Suárez and right-hander Zac Gallen may be next.

Arizona sends right-hander Brandon Pfaadt (10-6, 4.76 ERA) to the mound Tuesday. He’s been solid lately, allowing just four total runs while going 2-0 over his past three starts.

Detroit counters with All-Star righty Casey Mize (9-4, 3.40 ERA), who is enjoying his best season since being taken No. 1 overall in the 2018 draft. However, he’s been shaky in his last two outings, giving up 11 runs (10 earned) over seven innings. Still, he’s capable of bouncing back—especially against a fading Arizona squad.

Pick: Tigers -1.5 runs (+143, DraftKings)

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics

The Mariners acquired Naylor—who homered Monday—from Arizona and are also among the suitors for Suárez. The third baseman spent the 2022–23 seasons with Seattle and would be a clear offensive upgrade over Ben Williamson, who is known for his glove at third but not his bat.

Seattle’s offense could thrive Tuesday as A’s right-hander Luis Severino (4-11, 4.95 ERA) takes the mound in a ballpark he has openly criticized. His struggles at home are well-documented: Severino is 0-9 with a 6.68 ERA in 12 starts in West Sacramento.

Oakland does have a major bright spot in slugging first baseman Nick Kurtz. At age 22, he already looks like a future 500-homer club member. Kurtz is batting .527 (29-for-55) with nine home runs, 10 doubles, one triple and 19 runs during a 14-game hitting streak—a stretch that includes a legendary 6-for-6 game with four homers, eight RBIs, six runs and 19 total bases against the Houston Astros.

Pick: Mariners moneyline (-114, DraftKings)