MLB Betting Picks Today: Thursday August 28th Top Baseball Picks, Predictions

Did the Mets call up Nolan McLean too late to win the Rookie of the Year Award? He’s sitting at just +10000. Anyway, let’s try to find some winners on today’s reduced slate.

Season record: 3-1, +1.65 units

Pirates at Cardinals

Pick: Pirates F5 ML (+100, bet365)

The Pirates are a bad team, especially on the road. They’ve gone a dreadful 20-45 away from Pittsburgh with a 73 wRC+, second worst in MLB. Backing them away from the Steel City has produced a -31.5% ROI, per VSiN.com, before yesterday’s win.

Still, I’ll roll with them today in St. Louis — but only for the first five innings. On the F5, they’re a more tolerable 17-28-19 with a -13.4% ROI. The key is the pitching matchup, not to mention how stagnant the Cardinals have looked.

Braxton Ashcraft, a converted reliever, has looked fantastic since moving into the rotation. In 13.1 innings over three starts, he has 15 strikeouts against just two walks, good for a 26.2% K-BB%. He also owns a 1.35 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, and hasn’t yielded a barrel. Opponents are hitting for just 83 EV. Yes, the sample size is small, but the dominance is real — his SIERA sits at 2.38. Oddly, he’s been more effective as a starter than as a reliever.

Ashcraft draws a Cardinals offense with a league-worst .359 SLG since the All-Star break. St. Louis counters with Miles Mikolas, the definition of a replacement-level innings eater. He never misses a start, but the results aren’t pretty: a 5.17 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 14.9% K%. With his pitch-to-contact profile, it’s usually hope-for-the-best baseball. I’ll back the Pirates F5 ML.

Rockies at Astros

Pick: Astros Run Line -1.5 (-118, FanDuel)

Jason Alexander has pitched so well in Houston’s rotation that it’s hard to resist the Seinfeld jokes. Over his last five starts (28 innings), he has a 1.93 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Truly the Summer of George.

Alexander gets his softest matchup yet against a Rockies team with a .209 average and 68 wRC+ on the road. Colorado sends Kyle Freeland, who is better away from Coors Field but still below average with a 4.56 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He now faces an Astros lineup stacked with right-handed bats and a 108 wRC+ on the season.

I usually avoid run-line favorites, but this feels like the right play. Astros -1.5.