MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies, April 18

Must begin today’s column by shouting out Josh Jung for his hustle down the first-base line en route to clinching last night’s prop bet victory. If not for beating out that two-out infield single — and an almost-incredible play by Tim Anderson at shortstop — Jack Kochanowicz makes it through the fifth, and who knows how many batters he’d get in the sixth?

Now, onto the weekend.

What a matchup to kick things off in the series opener tonight between the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies. Two unquestionable aces — and two of my longtime favorite pitchers — Sandy Alcantara and Zack Wheeler will face off to begin the proceedings.

Taking a quick glance at their overall numbers through a handful of starts, it might be easy to surmise that both pitchers aren’t their usual dominant selves at the moment. Wheeler enters with an ERA above 4.00, while Alcantara uncharacteristically carries one closer to 5.00 in his return from Tommy John surgery. Should this be viewed as evidence of a regression for each?

Absolutely not.

Let’s begin with Wheeler. The former first-round draft pick has actually looked perfectly fine, illustrated by the 2.50 xERA (expected ERA) he’s registered in his first four outings. That would actually be the lowest such mark of his career since this stat was introduced as part of Major League Baseball’s Statcast system 10 years ago. Given Wheeler’s lengthy run of excellence, this should be viewed as significant.

All the other numbers Wheeler has posted are more in line with what we’ve grown accustomed to from the perennial Cy Young candidate. His strikeout rate sits at 10.4 K/9, which is right around his career best.

True, Wheeler was tagged for at least four runs in each of his last two assignments, but that may be all the more reason to trust him next time out. Only in one stretch of his six-season tenure with the Phillies — spanning 149 starts including playoffs — did the 34-year-old yield more than four runs in three-plus consecutive turns.

And he’ll have the right opponent to get back on track. Not only has Miami ranked in the bottom five of all of baseball in runs scored in four straight seasons (they’re currently ranked 21st), but they’re also a club Wheeler has consistently fared well against.

Wheeler is 11-4 lifetime against the Marlins in 19 meetings, with a 2.73 ERA and 168 strikeouts across 158 innings. Furthermore, he’s shackled them to a harmless .219/.276/.335 slash line in those games.

In addition, we also like that Wheeler will be working from home. Despite Citizens Bank Park’s reputation for favoring hitters, the veteran right-hander is 38-14 in 81 career starts in Philadelphia — including playoffs and his days as a New York Met — with a superb 2.61 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.

Yeah, we can trust Wheeler to rebound considerably on this night — and hopefully that’s what will also happen for his counterpart, Alcantara.

Though the 2022 National League Cy Young Award winner carries a 4.70 ERA next to his name, he, too, has been better than that number suggests, as prompted by a 3.93 FIP.

Walks have been the issue for Alcantara in his first three outings, with eight free passes handed out in just 15 1/3 innings. At the same time, opponents aren’t doing much with the bat off the right-hander, based on his .182 batting average against. That mark won’t remain there, but it’s still telling that Alcantara has that number 30 points below his Cy Young campaign.

Alcantara has issued fewer than 2.5 walks per nine innings in each of his last three seasons, so we can certainly anticipate him improving in that area. It also helps for comfort purposes that he’s a few starts into the season now after missing all of last year due to injury.

The Phillies can be intimidating in the box, but Alcantara has held his own when facing this division foe. While he’s 6-8 versus Philly for his career, he’s registered a 3.40 ERA in those 19 matchups and, more impressively, has allowed only nine home runs collectively.

Given how the juice is allotted, I recommend buying the half run at a very fair price on this total.

Pick: Under 8 (-130, Bet365)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 12-10-1, -0.33 unit
Over/Unders: 10-7-1
Props: 2-2
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Result: Jack Kochanowicz Under 16.5 Outs (WIN)

Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit unless otherwise indicated.

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