MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians, April 28th

Winning streaks are the name of the game, and fortunately, we’re surging on another one after Sunday’s strong betting performance that included the usual cozy under bet victory.

It’s a new week now, and we’ll open the proceedings similarly to how we ended the previous set of seven days: with a Minnesota Twins game. They’re taking things on the road to visit the American League Central rival Cleveland Guardians for the first of four this evening.

The opening pitching tilt for this series is an enticing one, with one of my top sleepers of the year, Gavin Williams, hosting another underrated arm in Bailey Ober.

We’ll start with the more experienced of the two, Ober, who — at first glance — might seem off to a difficult beginning this season. However, his 5.04 ERA and 1.44 WHIP are more so skewed by one bad outing — his season debut (an under we lost on the first Sunday of the season, remember) — and in a sample size of five starts, such a showing will have more of an impact on one’s overall numbers.

Strangely, Ober experienced a rocky first assignment last year, too, and ultimately set a career high in wins (12) and strikeout rate (9.6 K/9) while notching a 3.98 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He also held opposing batters to a minuscule .208 average across his 31 starts.

Maybe the imposing 6-foot-9 right-hander is on a similar trajectory in 2025, getting rocked in his first outing before settling in. Ober has allowed a combined six runs in his last four turns since, none of which saw him yield more than three.

With Ober headed in a positive direction, it might be best to attempt capitalizing on his progression against the opponent he’s had the most success against in his five-year career. Ober’s 2.20 ERA opposite the Guardians in eight lifetime meetings is the lowest such mark he’s posted against any club he’s faced more than three times. In addition, he’s recorded a sterling 46-to-5 K/BB ratio in these matchups, spanning 45 innings.

Delving further into Ober’s ownership of this division foe, take note of what he’s done specifically against Cleveland’s regulars. While José Ramírez has a good track record with Ober on the mound, the likes of Steven Kwan, Carlos Santana, Lane Thomas, Bo Naylor, Jhonkensy Noel, Brayan Rocchio and Nolan Jones are a combined 2-for-51 (.040!) with 18 strikeouts.

No, that is not a typo — a .040 average! That is the definition of dominance.

Meanwhile, the other starter in this affair has also displayed a penchant for shutting down tonight’s division opponent, albeit in a lesser number of meetings. Still, Williams constructing a 2.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in four starts versus the Twins is very notable, and it should also be mentioned that they have no home runs in those 63 at-bats with the former first-round draft pick doing the dealing.

Williams has shelved Minnesota to a little-league-like .159/.254/.191 slash line, and considering he’s coming off his best outing of the season last time out against the New York Yankees, we’ll gladly entrust Williams to keep it going. In the process, he’ll help navigate this under home.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-115, Caesars)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 21-16-1, +1.69 units
Over/Unders: 18-11-1
Props: 3-4
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Results: Angels-Twins Under 8 (WIN), Spencer Schwellenbach Over 17.5 Outs (WIN)

Each bet is graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.

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