MLB Picks Today: Jack Flaherty, Aaron Nola Strikeout Props for Phillies vs. Tigers

Tough sports week is coming up as the World Cup winds down and MLB heads to the All Star Break.

So let’s enjoy the action while we can and hopefully win a couple MLB Picks.

Season Record 43-43-2, -2.53 Units

Phillies at Tigers

Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125 Fanatics)

Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100 Caesars)

These two guys are kind of similarly maddening when you roster them in Fantasy. By maddening I mean incredibly inconsistent. On consecutive starts in May e.g. Nola went into Miami and shut out a tough Marlins lineup for 6 innings. Then in his next outing he couldn’t even make it through 5 IP at home vs the Rockies. And they both have underperformed their peripherals. Flaherty has a 4.60 ERA but a 4.32 xERA and 4.10 SIERA. With Nola it’s a ugly 5.87 ERA but a 4.26 xERA and 3.95 SIERA.

That’s the case for both mainly because they can still strike guys out even while other parts of their game can get shaky. Flaherty has a 26.5% K% which is 75th percentile and a 26.5% Whiff% that’s 60th percentile. Unfortunately it’s accompanied by a 10.7% BB% that’s 23rd percentile. He’s actually been very good overall lately. In his last 5 starts he has a 1.90 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 28 K’s in 23.1 IP with just 7 BB’s. The Phillies offense, while very good overall, does tend to swing and miss a bit which makes sense since their best hitter is Kyle Schwarber and that’s exactly his profile. They have a 24.6% K% over the last 30 days, which is 6th highest in the league.

Detroit is right behind them at 24.2%, which helps out Nola a bit. He’s not quite at Flaherty’s level, but his 23.2% K% is 55th percentile and perhaps he should do a shade better as his 26.8% Whiff% is slightly better than Flaherty’s.

The big issue for Nola getting to hit number is likely length, or more specifically his frequent inability to get deep into games this year. He went 7 IP in Kansas City in his last start and was excellent, with 7 K’s and no walks. But he failed to get past 5 innings in the 6 starts before that, and in 13 of his 18 starts overall. The market hit his Outs total at 16.5, so he’s a favorite to get into the 6th today and if that number is right, he should get to 6 K’s against a somewhat hot but still league average Tigers lineup.