MLB Picks Today: Twins and Mariners Headline Friday's Bets

Adam Warner|published: Fri 15th May, 09:51 2026

Apr 15, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins third baseman Ryan Kreidler runs the bases on his three run home run against the Boston Red Sox in the ninth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

It’s Rivalry weekend! I think it is at least, I’m not sure if MLB’s marketing arm calls it that, but we’ve got a lot of natural rivals playing.

So let’s try to nail a couple MLB picks tonight.

Season Record 22-17-1, +2.48 Units

Brewers at Twins

Twins F5 -0.5 (+106 FanDuel)

The Twins have banked coin on the F5 this year, going 15-4-2 on the ML for a 43.7% ROi and 16-5 39.6% on the Run Line. Both of those are tops in MLB. And they have their ace going tonight in Joe Ryan and he’s thrived in his career at Target Field with a 3.63 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He has a 29% K% at home both this season (17.1 IP) and for his career.

The Brewers start Logan Henderson, a rookie who’s generally good when healthy, with a 3.02 career SIERA and 0.97 WHIP over 38 innings across the last two seasons. This year he has 16 K’s vs just 2 walks in 13.1 IP.

These two offenses play at close to league average levels, with the Twins checking in at 102 wRC+ at home, while the Brewers sit at 95 wRC+ on the road.

I do believe in Henderson’s skills, I think I trust them even more than the Brewers do as he seems to often get bypassed when they need to add someone to the rotation. But I trust Ryan and the Twins home record more, so let’s go with them.

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Padres at Mariners

Mariners ML (-122 Polymarket)

It’s Game 4 of the prestigious Vedder Cup! Unfortunately for the Mariners they got swept in San Diego, so they need to both return the favor and win by a total of more than seven runs in the three games this weekend. What happens if the M’s Sweep by a combined margin of exactly seven runs?

Glad you asked….the Cup goes to whichever team had the highest EV hit (Exit Velocity, not Eddie Vedder).

We’re just looking at tonight though and its an interesting battle between two SP’s who’ve shown massive improvements in 2026. Emerson Hancock was a first round pick who scuffled in his occasional opportunities in Seattle’s rotation, but he’s arguably now the top arm in a stacked rotation. He’s rocking a 3.21 ERA with a 1.01 ERA and 22.2% K-BB%. His last two outings have been his best (14Ks, 0 BBs in 7 IP vs KC) and then his worst (4 K, 3 BB, 5 ER in 6 IP vs, the White Sox).

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