MLB Wild Card Game 2 Predictions: Tigers vs. Guardians, Padres vs. Cubs

Tough start to the playoffs, lets get it back today!

Season Record: 17-18-2, -2.04 Units

Tigers at Guardians

Under 6.5 (+100 BetRivers)

I will not profess to love either of these starters today. But I like them better than the mediocre offenses they get to face.

In all fairness to Tanner Bibee of the Guardians, he has caught fire at a perfect time for his teams’ playoff hopes. In his last 4 starts he has 1.30 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over 27.2 IP, with 26 K’s (25.5%) and 5 BB’s (4.9%). One of those starts was a 9 IP shutout vs, the White Sox, while another was a 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 hit, 8 K win over the Tigers. Bibee has not had a great year overall, but he has pitched well at home with a 3.22 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.

Mize too has pitched better of late, with a 3.49 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 5 September starts, with a sparkling 28.1% K% vs. 3.1% BB%.

If either SP falters, the top leverage relievers for each team look like a full go. Both closers did get in the game yesterday but they went 15 pitches (Tigers’ Will Vest) and 19 pitches (Guardians Cade Smith) respectively, and neither had gone since Saturday. Vest was the only Tiger other than Tarik Skubal to pitch, while lefty specialist Erik Sabrowski and Hunter Gaddis also pitched for Cleveland.

Playoff games skew towards tight and low scoring (unless the Dodgers are playing apparently). But in this case we get a Guardians team that hit .226 on the year and bumped that up all the way to .242 in September when they got “hot”. The Tigers meanwhile had just an 87 wRC+ in September with an ugly .230/.303/.369 triple slash. I just doubt we see much offense, so give me the Under.

Padres at Cubs

Padres ML (100 ESPN BET)

I wish no one in MLB ever thought of “openers”, but here we are. The Cubs will start Andrew Kittredge and he’s expected to go about an inning or so. At some juncture they will hand the ball to Shota Imanaga as their “bulk” pitcher. At least that’s the reporting on it, there are no guarantees.

I get it, the Cubs would rather have gone with stellar rookie Cade Horton in Game 2, but he’s on the shelf, possibly for the whole playoffs. Shota was gashed for 9 hits and 8 earned runs vs. the Mets last Tuesday, and allowed exactly 3 earned runs in each of his last 5 starts before that. The league has caught up to him a bit overall this season as his SwStr% dropped from 14.5% to 11.9% and his K% is down from 25.1% to 20.6%.

The Padres start Dylan Cease who’s had a very durable career marked by lots of K’s, too many walks, and a nagging tendency to give up more runs than his peripherals suggest. He had a 4.55 ERA despite a 3.46 xERA and 3.55 SIERA. His K% is 29.8 with a BB% 9.8%. He’s a pending free agent, so if the Padres don’t rally to win the series, it’s quite possibly his last start for them. I say he turns in a stellar outing.

These two offenses are both good, especially now as the Cubs have emerged from a 2nd half funk. The difference is the pitching, and Cease plus the Padres lights out bullpen has the edge.