Monday Night Football Week 1 Betting Pick: Why the Bears Are the Smart Bet vs. Vikings

The Chicago Bears are coming off another terrible season, while the Minnesota Vikings won 14 games. Minnesota looks like the obvious option here, but there are a few key reasons why Chicago makes more sense for the odds.

First, JJ McCarthy is taking over as the quarterback for the Vikings. He was a first-round pick in 2024, but he’s essentially a rookie after missing his entire rookie season with an injury. He has all the tools to be an above-average starter, but there are going to be severe growing pains.

Minnesota also struggled on the road at times last season. Their record (6-2) was fine, but their predictive metrics look relatively bad. The Vikings ranked fourth in the NFL in points per play (0.472) at home, compared to 22nd in the same category (0.331) on the road. They were also worse defensively outside of Minnesota last season.

The Bears hired an entirely new coaching staff, including some of the best in the NFL. We’ll start with Dennis Allen, who will take over as the defensive coordinator. He consistently features some of the best defenses in the NFL, and he runs impressively aggressive defenses. Allen knows how to find success against elite quarterbacks, and he’s likely to confuse a young quarterback like McCarthy throughout the game.

Head coach Ben Johnson is the most important hire, though. He’ll take over the offense after calling one of the best offenses in the NFL in Detroit last season. He’s generally viewed as one of the best offensive minds in the league, and he essentially hand-picked Chicago as a landing spot for his career.

Chicago had one of the best offseasons in the entire league. They added three new starting offensive linemen. It’s going to make life drastically easier for Caleb Williams, who’s expected to take a step forward as one of the most naturally talented young quarterbacks in the NFL.

Ultimately, the Bears don’t have the same offense that Johnson coached in Detroit, but they have several pieces to build around. This isn’t a team where Johnson is looking to rebuild anymore, and he’s looking to move into win-now mode.

I expect both defensive coordinators to find success against these young quarterbacks, which could limit scoring. If that’s the case, I’ll take the home team as a small underdog.

Where to Bet: Chicago Bears moneyline | +105 at Bet365
2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 0-2