NCAA Tournament Thursday Picks: Why Georgia and Saint Mary’s Offer Value

The Georgia Bulldogs get a great 8/9 seed matchup against the Saint Louis Billikens. There’s a drastic difference in the level of competition for these teams, and I believe that’s going to be a huge factor in this game.

Saint Louis looked awesome early in the season, starting out 24-1 with their only loss being a 1-point neutral site loss to Stanford. They lost four of their last eight games, though, including an A10 Tournament matchup against Dayton.

Georgia saw plenty of ups and downs throughout the season, but they were generally consistent against any team besides Ole Miss. They also have several wins better than anything Saint Louis has put together this season.

Ultimately, Georgia should be able to control this game with free throws and turnovers. Saint Louis struggles in both areas, while the Bulldogs have found success in both. If they can gain extra possessions and free points throughout this game, it’s going to be tough for the Billikens to stick with them.

The other aspect is that Saint Louis wants to push the pace in their games, and their opponents generally struggle to keep that pace. Georgia is also one of the fastest teams in the NCAA, and I expect them to have the edge virtually everywhere in this matchup.

Where to Bet: Georgia moneyline | -140 at BetMGM Sportsbook

St. Mary's vs. Texas A&M

This is a tough draw for Texas A&M, who could’ve made a run in the right matchups this tournament. Saint Mary’s is a tough style, and they’re going to play their game rather than get sucked into a track meet here.

The Gaels are going to have a massive edge in two areas in this game - free throws and rebounding. The Aggies are willing to foul their opponents, and Saint Mary’s ranks first in the NCAA in free-throw percentage (81.1%) this season. They don’t waste opportunities, with several of their players shooting over 80% from the line.

Texas A&M also struggles with allowing offensive rebounds, which gives their opponents extra offensive possessions. Saint Mary’s ranks 15th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage (37.4%).

The Aggies should have the edge in athleticism, and they’ve played much better competition throughout the season. I only believe that will matter if they can get this game to be played in their style, though, and I fully believe the Gaels are disciplined enough to slow this pace down and keep this from becoming a track meet.

Where to Bet: Saint Mary’s -2.5 spread | -120 at FanDuel Sportsbook