NHL Picks for Tuesday: Best Bets for Lightning vs. Canadiens and Ducks vs. Penguins

Happy Tuesday. It’s really cold out — it couldn’t feel any more like hockey! 

Let’s try to warm up with some NHL Picks from tonight’s slate.

NHL Season Stats: 6-17 (-10.16 Units)

Lightning at Canadiens

Lightning ML (+105 DraftKings)

These teams have nearly identical records, but we could say that about almost everyone in the East. All but two teams have between 30 and 36 points.

In this particular game, the Lightning are just the better team. They’ve outscored opponents 60–50 in 5x5 situations and 64.91–53.48 in expected goals for, the third-highest xGF percentage (54.83%) in the league.

The Canadiens, meanwhile, have been outscored 55–65 at 5x5. Their xGF deficit is just 55.64–58.83, which highlights a big issue for Montreal this year: subpar goaltending.

Expected starter Sam Montembeault is carrying an 86.1% save percentage and -12.34 GSAA. He’s been consistently rough for a month now with an 86.8% save percentage in that span. Jakub Dobeš could play, and while his season-long numbers are a bit better, he has an 86.5% save percentage and -7.81 GSAA over his last nine games.

The Lightning come in on a back-to-back and are without star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. That means they’ll either go with Jonas Johansson (89.6% save percentage) for a second straight night or 29-year-old career minor leaguer Brandon Halverson, who owns a 90.1% save percentage with Syracuse this year.

I’ll take a shot with the better team, who will either have the better goalie (Johansson) or an unknown who is likely no worse than what Montreal is getting.

Ducks at Penguins

Over 6.5 (-108 BetRivers)

We hit a Ducks over last Friday, so how about we go back to the well again?

They keep scoring — seven goals vs. Chicago on Sunday night — and they remain vulnerable on the back end with a middling defense and their top two goalies on the shelf.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh remains surprisingly strong, led by the ageless Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. They’ve combined for 26 goals and 33 assists in the Penguins’ 27 games.

Over 6.5 remains playable with this mix of firepower and defensive issues.