NHL Picks Today: Best Bets for Canadiens vs Jets and Ducks vs Mammoth

After last week’s pre-holiday bonanza, we’re back to a short Wednesday slate. 

But hey, we’ve got five games to choose from, let’s get into a couple NHL picks.

NHL Season Stats: 4-16 (-11.05 Units)

Jets at Canadiens

Canadiens ML (-104 BetRivers)

Winnipeg’s big advantage over everyone is that they employ Connor Hellybuyck in net. That only works when he plays however, and that is not the case now as it is on the LTIR. In his place steps Eric Comrie, who is basically league average with an 89.2% Save% and -1.23 GSAA in 556.7 minutes.

Montreal has had goaltending issues all season. Jacob Dobes likely gets the start tonight, and in the past month he has just an 85.8% Save% and -6.59 GSAA.

Still, I like the Canadiens as the slight underdog here on a back-to-back. These teams are pretty much even, especially over the last month. Winnipeg has gone 5-9 with an 11-goal deficit, vs. 5-6-3 and -13 for Montreal. The Canadiens’ xGF% in 5x5 play is at 49.1% vs. 48.5% for the Jets. There’s just not much separating these teams, so give me the Canadiens at home as slight dogs.

Mammoth at Ducks

Ducks ML (-110 BetMGM)

Both teams got off to fast starts this season and have since hit some adversity. In Anaheim, it’s having to play without goalie Lukas Dostal. Their calling card is offense, as they rank 2nd in the league with 3.56 goals per 60 minutes, led by Leo Carlson (14-22-36) and Cutter Gauthier (15-15-30). The team has slowed a bit, but they were still 10-6 in November and outscored their opponents 38-30.

Utah meanwhile tailed off last month at 4-9-3. Their 34.4% point percentage was the worst in the league. Perhaps they were a bit unlucky though, as their 49.3% GF% ranked them firmly mid-pack, and that number actually goes up to 53.4% at 5x5. Goaltender Karel Vejmelka has slumped, turning in just an 87.6% Save% and -5.71 GSAA in 12 November games.

The odds look shaded to Utah, likely thanks to the perceived goalie edge. 

But Anaheim’s Petr Mrazek is playing better than Vejmelka of late (89.7% Save%, -0.10 GSAA in 5 November games), and Anaheim does everything else as well or better than Utah. Give me the Ducks.