Playoff paths of Padres, Pirates vastly changed over past month

If you want to know how much the fortunes of a baseball team can change in a month, look at the San Diego Padres.

On July 23, after a loss to the Atlanta Braves, the Padres were 50-53. A month later, the Padres have a 63.6% chance of qualifying for the playoffs -- an increase of 54.3 percentage points, the highest in the major leagues, according to Baseball Reference. The team has a 21-7 record in that span, including an 8-1 rout of the Minnesota Twins on Sunday to complete a three-game sweep.

San Diego will try to improve its playoff odds a bit more on Monday night when it opens a three-game series with the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Padres (71-60) have a two-game lead over Arizona in the chase for the National League's final playoff spot. They also boast perhaps the hottest player in the majors, right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.

His two home runs on Sunday gave him 12 since the All-Star break, tied with the Chicago Cubs' Pete Crow-Armstrong for the most in the majors, and 17 for the year. A 4-for-5, four-RBI day capped a week that saw him go 12-for-25 with four homers and 11 RBIs.

The player who didn't hit his first homer of the year until May 30 against the Washington Nationals suddenly can't be kept in the park.

"Maybe three months of struggling," Tatis said when asked what turned his season around. "No, I'm kidding, but man, just, baseball is a game of adjustments. So whoever's making the right adjustments right now is whoever (is) one step ahead."

Left-hander Robbie Ray (11-7, 3.20 ERA) will try to stay one step ahead of Pittsburgh on the mound on Monday. He's coming off a 5-2 win Tuesday at the New York Mets, yielding one run on three hits in six innings while walking three and striking out four. Ray is 3-2 with a 4.09 ERA in eight career starts against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh will counter with right-hander Braxton Ashcraft (13-5, 3.68 ERA), arguably its most consistent starter in 2026. He defeated the Detroit Tigers 4-1 on Tuesday, cruising through eight innings, allowing five hits and a run with no walks and four strikeouts. His only career outing against San Diego occurred June 1, 2025, when he struck out two in an inning out of the bullpen in a 6-4 loss.

The Pirates come to San Diego reeling from a three-game sweep by the Los Angeles Dodgers, including a 4-0 shutout in Sunday's series finale. The Pirates are 8 1/2 games behind the Padres in the race for the final wild-card spot. On July 23, Pittsburgh was 53-50 and one game out of the final wild-card spot. The Pirates have a 10-19 record since.

"I don't think getting swept is ever good," Pirates first baseman Spencer Horwitz said. "I think in our current situation, it definitely is bigger. This team has hopes for the playoffs, and it just got a whole lot harder."

Injuries to key contributors such as Ryan O'Hearn (quadriceps) and rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin (finger) have hurt. And aside from Ashcraft, pitching has been a problem. The team's ERA of 4.29 is 22nd in the majors.

San Diego won two of three games when the teams met in April at PNC Park. The Padres are 14-6 in the teams' past 20 matchups.

--Field Level Media