Spain favored, Argentina seeing more action for World Cup final

Field Level Media|published: Thu 16th July, 12:37 2026

July 15, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.; Argentina's Lionel Messi celebrates after the match. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Spain opened as the +125 favorites to win the World Cup and stood at +130 as of Thursday morning, but Lionel Messi and defending champions Argentina are seeing more of the betting action, according to BetMGM.

Argentina -- who opened at +250 at the sportsbook and have since moved to +240 -- have received 58% of the total bets and 59% of the handle at BetMGM. That's compared to 36% of the bets and 38% of the handle for Spain.

A tie after extra time, which would necessitate a penalty kick shootout to decide the tournament, is on the board at +200, meaning it's seen as likelier than an Argentina outright victory.

Argentina prevailed on penalty kicks after playing France to a 3-3 tie at the 2022 World Cup final in Qatar.

The over/under set for the game is 2.5 total goals (excluding penalties), with under 2.5 the heavily favored outcome at -165. That's a product of Spain's stringent defense this tournament: Six of the Spaniards' seven matches have ended in clean sheets as goalkeeper Unai Simon has let just one goal past him altogether.

Spain defeated France 2-0 on Tuesday in the first semifinal, while Argentina engineered a late comeback to shock England 2-1 on Wednesday.

The odds are similar at other sportsbooks. DraftKings lists Spain as the +130 favorite in regular time and Argentina is back at +255. FanDuel shows Spain at +130 and Argentina at +260.

BetMGM also reported that the majority of tickets (20.3%) and of the handle (39.4%) were placed on France's Kylian Mbappe to finish as the World Cup's top goalscorer. He is the book's biggest liability, ahead of Messi at No. 2. Messi has been the focus of 14.9% of the tickets and 22.6% of the handle.

Mbappe and Messi are tied at -120 on BetMGM to win the honor as they enter the weekend with eight goals apiece. France may be out of the running for the FIFA World Cup Trophy, but they will face England on Saturday in the third-place match. Goals scored in that game count toward the final tally.

--Field Level Media