Spurs vs. Thunder Game 1 Best Betting Picks and Predictions

The Western Conference Finals begin Monday and a pair of familiar foes hook up in Oklahoma City to tip-off a potentially epic series.

The defending champion Thunder welcome the San Antonio Spurs in a matchup many fans were anticipating through the season.

The Spurs captured four of five meetings this season, so we’ll see if that carries over to the conference finals.

We’ll break down two plays for the Monday action. Remember to monitor the odds throughout the day, as the sides and totals market is constantly changing.

Here are the free NBA picks for Monday, May 18. Odds Courtesy of DraftKings.

Best NBA plays today

• Thunder (-6.5) vs. Spurs
• Victor Wembanyama Under 23.5 Points

Thunder (-6.5) vs. Spurs - 8:30 p.m. ET

Three of San Antonio’s four wins against OKC this season came in the underdog role, including twice when receiving at least 10 points.

The Thunder have yet to lose in the postseason, sweeping both the Suns and Lakers and posting a 5-3 mark against the spread. All three non-covers came as a double-digit favorite, while laying less than 10 points only twice.

The Spurs are listed as a road underdog for the first time in the playoffs, going 4-1 away from Frost Bank Center with three wins by at least 12 points. In the last 36 games, San Antonio closed as an underdog once, coming in a 118-99 victory over the Clippers without Victor Wembanyama in the lineup on April 2.

MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed the most recent matchup against the Spurs on February 4, a 10-point road defeat. SGA is averaging 29.1 points per game in the playoffs and basically maintained that average against the Spurs in four meetings. Look for OKC to come out with the opening punch tonight and grab the home cover in Game 1.

Victor Wembanyama Under 23.5 Points - 8:30 p.m. ET

In the five matchups with Oklahoma City this season, Wembanyama has yet to eclipse this point total. He posted 22 points twice and was held to 19 or fewer in the other three meetings. This is his highest posted point total in the six games, which started at 15.5 in the first game on December 13 when he scored 22 points.

In five of the last seven games, Wemby scored 19 points or less, with his two highest-scoring outputs being 39 and 27 points against Minnesota. The 2023 top pick was held to 7 or fewer field goal makes against the Thunder, which is a key number tonight.

In the playoffs, Wembanyama failed to score more than 24 points when he didn’t convert at least 7 field goals. If the Thunder can keep him around that number, he should be limited to below 24 points.