Stubbs: Joey Logano dangerous longshot in chase for third title

Going into the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, nobody saw Joey Logano as a true championship favorite.

Yes, he'd proven that he can win a title even when not expected -- as he did in 2018 when he defeated the "Big Three" of Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. -- but 2022 was a season filled with parity, where the unknown was the only certainty.

With only 12 top-10 finishes through the first 26 races of the season, the No. 22 team was mostly an afterthought when discussing who could potentially make it to the Final Four.

But, as history will tell you, it was Logano and the No. 22 team who caught fire, collecting six top-10 finishes over the season's final 10 weeks in a run that culminated with a championship at Phoenix.

With Logano being in the midst of his worst season since he joined Team Penske in 2013, the doubters are a little more credible this time around. Only a fuel mileage win at Nashville put Logano in the playoffs, and just 8 top-10 finishes through the first 26 races have many picking Logano to be bounced in the first round.

By every conceivable measure and statistic, Logano is a first-round exit. A lack of consistent speed and playoff points looms large, as does a postseason field that is extremely competitive.

Logano will only have a two point advantage over 13th-place Chase Briscoe when the green flag waves on Sunday in Atlanta, and depending on qualifying, that gap could be nullified immediately.

So why, exactly, should anyone pick Logano as the driver most likely to upset the field and win his third Cup Series championship?

It's simple: Both of his aforementioned championship runs came when few in the garage area took the No. 22 team seriously, which is perhaps when they're most dangerous.

At the Chicago Street Race in July, Logano discussed a potential championship run, despite the struggles facing the No. 22 team.

"We always think we can win the championship," Logano said. "You think of 2018, I remember having the conversation with my wife and saying, 'I hope we get through the first round.' All of a sudden it got better and we went out and won the whole thing."

"You just gotta stay around," he continued. "You gotta be in it to win it is so real with our playoffs. Are we seeded the best? No. We don't have enough playoff points. The cards are stacked against us from that perspective. But I've seen where if you can just be solid, get through the rounds, and win the races that matter, you're around when the speed knob gets turned up. It happened to the 12 (Ryan Blaney) last year. He got through the rounds as he needed to, and by the time it was gametime, boom. The speed showed up and he won the championship.

"We did that in 2018, we did that in 2022. Hopefully, we do it again this year."

It's safe to say that the cards are once more stacked against Logano, Paul Wolfe and the No. 22 team, but if there's one thing Team Penske knows how to do, it's turn up the fire when the playoffs begin.

Fresh off of a championship hangover year in 2023 where he was eliminated in the Round of 16, there'd be no better bounceback for Logano than to etch his name in history as a three-time Cup Series champion.

--Samuel Stubbs, Field Level Media