Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans Monday Night Football Week 2 Betting Predictions

We’re getting a massive letdown spot for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their primetime matchup against the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football. These are our best betting picks. 

This is the perfect combination of the Texans coming off their own letdown against the Los Angeles Rams, and the Bucs coming off a late-game win over the Atlanta Falcons. We’re now gearing up for the Houston bounce-back and Tampa Bay letdown.

The Texans flashed an elite defense against the Rams, and I expect that to carry over at home this week. They were better in Houston last season, holding opponents to only 0.336 points per play. The Texans also averaged a league-high 2.2 takeaways per game at home in 2024.

Houston is also a drastically better team when Nico Collins is healthy. Granted, they lost last week and struggled offensively. In 2024, the Texans posted a 9-5 record with Collins starting compared to a 2-3 record without him.

The biggest key to the games with and without Collins is the context, though. Houston had a bad loss against the Tennessee Titans with their star receiver healthy. Excluding that game, their losses were to the Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs (twice) and Baltimore Ravens.

We also have a situation where we can sell high on Tampa Bay. We already talked about their last-minute win over the Falcons, but that game was also one missed field goal away from going to overtime. We can also sell high on their road success in 2024.

The Bucs were dominant on the road last season, and all of their advanced metrics look great. Once again, though, we need to look at the context of those games.

Tampa Bay posted a 5-3 record on the road in 2024. Their only “good” loss was to the Kansas City Chiefs, while they also lost early in the season to the Falcons and later in the year to the Dallas Cowboys.

I’m more interested in the road wins, though. The Bucs had two great road wins against the Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions last season. Outside of those, Tampa Bay beat the New Orleans Saints, New York Giants and Carolina Panthers. Including a dominant win against the Chargers, it isn’t difficult to see why they had such great numbers on the road.

We’re simply backing a small home favorite in a spot where we can buy low on them while selling high on their opponent.

Where to Bet: Houston Texans -2.5 spread | -108 at DraftKings Sportsbook