Texans vs Chiefs Sunday Night Football Betting Prediction: Week 14 Bet Picks

The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Houston Texans in one of the most important games of the week on Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs enter this game with a 6-6 record, while the Texans are 7-5. Both teams are playing for their playoff lives, and a loss would be extremely detrimental to their chances to make it.

Kansas City isn’t the dominant powerhouse they’ve been in years past, but that’s more because of a lack of offense than their defense. They’re only allowing .350 points per play this season, and that number dips to .284 at home. Overall, they’re giving up only 14 points per game at home in 2025.

On the other side, Houston hasn’t traveled well this season. They rank 23rd in the NFL in points (.340) per play, and that number dips to .303 on the road. They’re averaging only 19.7 points per game on the road this season.

The Texans’ numbers on the road are skewed a bit, though. They scored 44 points on the road against the Baltimore Ravens in early October, and that’s the only thing boosting their numbers. Excluding that game, they’re averaging only 14.8 points per game, and they scored 20 points only once.

The key to this play is that Houston will need to score two touchdowns to have a chance to beat this number. They haven’t found success in the red zone throughout the season, though. Overall, they’re scoring a touchdown on only 43.6% of their red zone possessions, which ranks near the bottom of the NFL.

The Chiefs have been one of the better red zone defenses in the NFL. They rank seventh in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage allowed (54.3%) this season. They’re only giving up 1.6 red zone touchdowns per game, which also ranks seventh.

Kansas City is also elite at controlling the clock, which will limit Houston’s opportunities. They rank fifth in the NFL, averaging nearly 32 minutes of possession per game. The Texans are also good at wasting clock, suggesting this game could turn into a slow-paced game with limited possessions.

Overall, I don’t trust the Texans to be able to sustain drives and find consistent success in the red zone. As long as Kansas City doesn’t give up any massive plays for touchdowns, Houston should struggle to find the end zone.

Where to Bet: Houston Texans under 19.5 points | -111 at FanDuel Sportsbook

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 21-30