Texans vs Steelers Wild Card Pick: Top Monday Night Football Playoff Predictions

The Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Houston Texans in the NFL Wild Card after sneaking in on a Baltimore Ravens missed field goal. The Steelers generally been viewed as a lucky team, although they did post a 10-7 record. The Texans haven’t been without hiccups, but they’ve looked outstanding with a 12-5 record overall.

Houston relies heavily on their defense, and it’s one of the best in the NFL. They rank third in the league in points allowed (.299) per play, and that number drops to .267 on the road. Overall, they’re only giving up 17.4 points per game in 2025.

The Texans are going to have a massive edge in the defensive category. Although the Steelers are solid, they’re a relatively average defense. Both teams are outstanding at forcing turnovers, ranking third and fourth in the NFL, respectively.

On the other side of the ball, these are two teams that have consistently protected the ball as well. Houston leads the NFL, averaging only 0.7 giveaways per game this season. Pittsburgh isn’t far behind them, averaging 0.9 giveaways per game in the regular season.

Ultimately, we’re looking at two teams that rank second (Houston) and fourth (Pittsburgh) in the league in turnover margin this season.

The key here is that the offenses are much closer than the defenses. The Steelers slightly edge out the Texans in that category, although you can make a case that Houston will have an edge in this type of game.

Aaron Rodgers is a veteran that generally isn’t effected by outside factors. He boasts similar numbers regardless of the pressure, and he numbers aren’t overly different regardless of his opponents blitz rate. One of the factors is because he gets the ball out so fast that his opponents pressure isn’t always a major factor.

On the other side, CJ Stroud has massive splits in terms of pressure. He’s averaging 7.8 yards per attempt (YPA) when he’s kept clean compared to 6.0 YPA when he’s under pressure. He also owns a 14/3 TD/INT split in the first situation compared to a 5/5 split in the second.

The Steelers have been reasonable getting pressure on their opponents, but they haven’t been good. If the Houston line can holdup at all, which is a big if, the Texans should have a huge edge in this game. Even if they don’t, I slightly prefer them with only a field goal being the price.

Where to Bet: Houston Texans -3 spread | +100 at Bet365

2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 26-44