Tuesday NHL Best Bets: November 4th's Expert Hockey Betting Picks

Well, I closed the MLB season in the black thanks to the superhuman feats of an LA Dodgers star from Japan!

Of course I mean Yoshi Yamamoto. But it’s November — time to check in on the NHL!

MLB Final Season Stats: 29-30-2 (+1.69 Units)
NHL Season Stats: 1-1 (-0.04 Units)

HURRICANES AT RANGERS

Pick: Rangers ML (+110 ESPN BET)

The Rangers won the President’s Trophy for the best record in the NHL in 2023-24 and made it to the Stanley Cup semis in both that season and the 2021-22 campaign. But they fell apart in 2024-25 and missed the playoffs completely. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have remained one of the best teams in the league for the entirety of this half decade, though have not advanced past the conference finals either.

Odd as this may sound with the Rangers carrying a mediocre 6-5-2 record, they have arguably improved since they sat near the top of the league. Back in their brief “heyday,” they thrived with an excellent power play and All-World goaltending from Igor Shesterkin covering for many mistakes.

This season Shesterkin is still very good, but his 4.26 GSAA ranks just 11th in the league and he’s tailed off a bit lately. Meanwhile, the D in front of him has been excellent, as their 2.68 xGA per 60 minutes ranks 3rd in the league.

The Rangers’ offense has played pretty well as per the metrics (and eye test) with 3.21 expected goals per 60 minutes, but only actually scored at a 2.38 goals-per-60 pace. The Rangers have particularly underperformed in close situations — they have 35.56 expected goals but have netted just 21, the worst deficit in the league.

Bad luck or just bad finishing? The truth is likely somewhere in the middle, though it all suggests this is a pretty good team.

The Canes are still excellent this year. The Rangers have yet to win at home this season, but that’s where their bad luck (or finishing) has manifested the most — with just 6 goals vs. 14.58 expected. I’ll bank on some regression tonight and roll with the Rangers at plus money.

FLYERS AT CANADIENS

Pick: Flyers ML (+145 BetRivers)

Montreal has a better record (9-3 to 6-5-1) and better goal differential (8 vs. 2). But the Flyers are actually better in expected goal differential (0.07 per 60 minutes vs. -0.13 per 60 for Montreal).

Flyers goalie Dan Vladar has a 92.4% save percentage and 5 GSAA, which is kind of a wash if Montreal starts Jakub Dobes (93% Save%, 5.65 GSAA) — but a huge edge over Sam Montembeault and his 83.9% Save%.

Either way, give me the Flyers at these odds.