UFC Vegas 122 Betting Odds: The Biggest Line Moves Before Allen vs. Duncan

Brendan Allen versus Christian Leroy Duncan headlines Saturday's card at the Meta APEX. Several other bouts have moved more than the main event since opening. The biggest swings are Niko Price versus Leon Shahbazyan, Gerald Meerschaert versus Julius Walker, and the main event itself. These are comparisons of opening lines from offshore books against Thursday's lines from US books. The two sets of prices don't always line up, so the movements below are approximate.

Shahbazyan Goes From Pick'em to Clear Favorite

The biggest shift is Price versus Shahbazyan. The fight opened at -110/-110. By Thursday, Shahbazyan was about -160 and Price about +130 at BetMGM. Another book listed Shahbazyan at -149 and Price at +122.

That is a move of about 50 points, from an even fight to roughly a 60% favorite. Price has won four straight, which on its face should have kept the line closer. Shahbazyan lost his UFC debut, but bettors still moved the price toward him.

The likely reason is that bettors see Shahbazyan as the better pure athlete and the more skilled fighter. Price's four-fight streak may be built on the kind of chaos and toughness that tends to shrink when the opponent is more skilled and can control where the fight happens. It could also be a reaction to Shahbazyan's well-known talent and the sense that his debut loss was a one-off rather than a sign of decline. Value is thin now, though. Anyone betting Shahbazyan at -160 is paying for the correction.

Walker Stretches Past Meerschaert

Meerschaert versus Walker, at light heavyweight, has moved the other way. Walker opened around -265 and Meerschaert around +215 to +220. Some books now have Walker closer to -278 to -294, with Meerschaert at +225 to +231.

The move is modest, about 15 to 30 points. It still fits a clear story. Meerschaert is 37-22 and one of the most experienced fighters on the roster, while Walker is 7-3 and the younger, more athletic fighter. Bettors may simply be paying for the age and speed gap. Meerschaert's chances rest on getting the fight to the mat, where he has been dangerous for years. Some sharp bettors are probably taking the +230 for that reason.

Allen Shortens, Duncan Closes

Allen opened -210 against Duncan at +180. Thursday's lines were about -120 to -150 for Allen and +100 to +125 for Duncan, depending on the book. One book had the fight at -126 for Allen and -101 for Duncan.

In other words, the main event has narrowed and the underdog has gained support. Allen is a dangerous grappler who ranks second in UFC middleweight history in tapout wins, which is why he opened as a clear favorite. Duncan has knockout wins over Eryk Anders and Marco Tulio, and his length on the feet could give Allen trouble. Bettors may believe the opening line overvalued Allen's grappling.

Other Moves and Prelim Notes

Matheus Camilo versus Jai Herbert opened with Camilo at -145, but he has moved to -175 to -192.mmaoddsbreaker+1

Loopy Godinez versus Ketlen Souza is a flatter story, with Godinez at -225 to -245.

Ernesta Kareckaite versus Melissa Gatto opened Gatto at -225, but the price has shrunk dramatically to -115, with Kareckaite at -105. That is one of the largest shifts on the card, and it suggests the market has little conviction.

Wellmaker opened at -205 against Tanzilovi and is now about -230.