UFC Vegas 122 by the Numbers: Allen vs. Duncan Pits Grappling Against Clean Striking

Brendan Allen's submission game and takedown threat meet Christian Leroy Duncan's cleaner, more accurate striking in Saturday's middleweight main event at Meta APEX. The numbers favor Duncan on the feet and Allen on the mat, and the odds lean toward Allen. 

Allen is a -137 to -150 favorite, while Duncan sits at +110 to +125 across the books I checked.

Tale of the Tape

The Numbers That Jump Out

Picture the first two minutes of this fight. Duncan tends to throw more and land cleaner, averaging 4.45 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy, while Allen lands 3.75 per minute at 52%. The bigger gap is what each man absorbs. Allen takes 3.78 significant strikes per minute, while Duncan absorbs only 2.36. That's the number that makes Duncan's striking case strong, and it's why one preview calls him the cleaner striker.

Allen's case is on the ground. Fourteen of his 27 wins came by submission, and he averages 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Duncan's wrestling has been almost absent: 0.43 takedowns per 15 minutes at 20% accuracy. That gap means Allen can control where the fight goes, but he has to actually get it to the mat first.

Allen's Defensive Question

Allen's weakness is his defense. He has a 47% striking defense and a 57% takedown defense, and he took heavy damage from Edmen Shahbazyan in June, where the significant strikes were 90-89 in Shahbazyan's favor. Duncan has his own worries. His 15-2-0 record includes only two losses, but his takedown accuracy is among the lowest on the card. If the fight stays standing, Duncan's striking volume and defense should win rounds. If Allen gets it to the ground, the scorecards will change quickly.

Undercard Matchups to Watch

The main card has useful stats too. Jai Herbert (+148) faces Matheus Camilo (-192) at lightweight, Loopy Godinez (-245) meets Ketlen Souza (+186) at strawweight, and Julius Walker (-295) takes on Gerald Meerschaert (+220) in a light heavyweight bout that features Meerschaert's submission streak. Andre Fili and Kai Kamaka III meet again at featherweight, and Malcolm Wellmaker (-235) faces Otari Tanzilovi (+180) at bantamweight.

Bottom Line

Duncan's better numbers suggest he should win rounds on the feet, and his five-fight streak gives him momentum. Allen's submissions and takedown threat are his path to victory, and the bookmakers give him the edge because of that threat. A 3.5-round over/under line of -120 over and -102 under suggests the market expects a full, competitive fight.