Wednesday March 4th Top College Basketball Betting Picks & Predictions

As March Madness gets closer, the college basketball slate becomes more meaningful each day.

These are Deadspin's two best betting picks for Wednesday March 4 slate of games.

Arkansas vs. Texas

This is a huge game for both teams. Arkansas is currently projected as a 5-seed, and it’s wildly important to stay on the 5-line rather than fall to the six this season. Texas is sitting on the 10-line, and they’ll look to solidify where they stand here.

I expect Arkansas to be too talented at home for Texas, but we’re getting too wide a spread.

Both teams will be looking to score at the rim throughout this game. Texas has been better at defending the paint throughout conference play. The major concern with the Longhorns is their willingness to foul, although Arkansas doesn’t draw fouls at a high rate.

The biggest key here could be the lack of depth for Arkansas. They run a short rotation, forcing them to stay out of foul trouble.

Texas currently ranks second in the NCAA in FTA/FGA, though, and they have multiple players who can draw fouls at an elite rate. Matas Vokietaitis ranks third in the country in fouls drawn (8.7) per 40 minutes. Dailyn Swain also draws 5.4 fouls per 40 minutes.

If Arkansas gets into any type of foul trouble, Texas should have a major edge. The other factor is that the Razorbacks are going to know this, potentially forcing them to play a bit tentatively in this style of matchup.

Where to Bet: Texas +7.5 spread | -115 at BetMGM

Miami (FL) & SMU Over 160.5 Total Points

This is a game where these teams have one thing in common and two drastically different ways to score points.

First, Miami and SMU are both going to push the pace. They rank 89th and 35th in offensive pace this season, respectively. Both teams are going to push the ball as much as possible, leading to extra possessions.

The Hurricanes allow their opponents to score at an elite rate from three-pointers. The Mustangs don’t score a ton of points from deep, but that’s because of a lack of shots, not a lack of efficiency. They have six different players shooting 35% or better from beyond the arc, including four players who have hit 40+ threes this season.

On the other side, SMU also forces their opponents to beat them from deep. That isn’t where Miami thrives, but there are other ways to score. The Mustangs struggle with offensive rebounds, while the Hurricanes rank 12th in the NCAA in offensive rebounding percentage (37.7%).

Ultimately, I expect plenty of three-pointers from both teams, but Miami should also find plenty of second-chance points in this game.

Where to Bet: Miami (FL) & SMU over 160.5 total points | -110 at BetMGM

2025-26 CBB Season Betting Record: 1-1