What Prediction Markets Are Telling Us About Who Will Win NBA Cup

Starting Friday, Oct. 30, the fourth Emirates NBA Cup is taking place. Aside from giving fans a reason to watch typically meaningless October/November games, there are also some incredible matchups taking place in the Cup.

These are the six groups of five teams competing.

West Group A

• Denver Nuggets
• Houston Rockets
• Phoenix Suns
• Dallas Mavericks
• Utah Jazz

West Group B

• Oklahoma City Thunder
• Minnesota Timberwolves
• Los Angeles Clippers
• New Orleans Pelicans
• Memphis Grizzlies

West Group C

• San Antonio Spurs
• Los Angeles Lakers
• Portland Trail Blazers
• Golden State Warriors
• Sacramento Kings

East Group A

• Detroit Pistons
• Toronto Raptors
• Orlando Magic
• Milwaukee Bucks
• Brooklyn Nets

East Group B

• New York Knicks
• Cleveland Cavaliers
• Philadelphia 76ers
• Miami Heat
• Indiana Pacers

East Group C

• Boston Celtics
• Atlanta Hawks
• Charlotte Hornets
• Chicago Bulls
• Washington Wizards

Using Kalshi, let's take a look at which teams are favored to win the NBA Cup in 2026.

San Antonio Spurs (17% Chance, 17¢ Yes)

This makes a lot of sense. San Antonio advanced all the way to the NBA Cup Championship Game a season ago, before losing to the New York Knicks (much like the NBA Finals).

The Spurs are one of the favorites to win the NBA championship this season, and the Western Conference has appeared to open up a bit. Due to devastating injuries to Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace, as well as Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards, this appears to be San Antonio’s Western Conference to take home, at least in the NBA Cup.

San Antonio is also in a pretty favorable group, with their competitors being the Lakers, Trail Blazers, Warriors and Kings. Portland has the defensive potential to slow them down in their head-to-head matchup, and Golden State defeated the Spurs twice in San Antonio last year. But this is a golden opportunity for the Spurs to win this group and the NBA Cup.

Washington Wizards (14% Chance, 2¢ Yes)

Talk about a shocker! The new-look Washington Wizards with Anthony Davis, Trae Young and AJ Dybantsa have the opportunity to make a statement in the NBA Cup. They are in a weak group, with their only true competitor being Boston.

Washington has been very impressive so far. The Wizards are deep, athletic, talented and have versatility on both ends. Will they have figured it out enough to advance past Group Play? We will find out soon, but I like Washington as a sleeper.

Boston Celtics (9% Chance, 2¢ Yes)

The Boston Celtics are arguably in the weakest Cup group in the entire league. Their competitors are the Hawks, Hornets, Bulls and Wizards. Those are four teams that are unproven and could be wild cards, for sure.

But the most certain pick would be Boston, in my opinion. They have continued their regular season identity of living and dying by the three, and although it might cost them, it has worked so far in the regular season.

Philadelphia 76ers (9% Chance, 7¢ Yes)

The new-look 76ers have played very solid to begin the season. With their talent, they could definitely be the prime pick to win the NBA Cup. However, they are in the most loaded group in this tournament. They have to face off against four other Eastern Conference contenders, with the Knicks, Cavaliers, Heat and Pacers.

Is Philly capable of beating all of them? Absolutely. Heck, they’ve already defeated New York, Cleveland and Indiana in this first week of the season. Either way, all eyes will be on the 76ers to earn their first hardware with this core.